goldenBear88

#22 Profits row / Critical session on Gold

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Regarding August- October / I am on #22 Profits row and only #2 Stop-loss hits. My mid-Week Target been met earlier than I expected as the Trump’s statement Improved the DX and Gold lost all Hourly 4 momentum below the first Resistance of #1,907.80. It was indeed bad news for Gold Buyers since Monetary stimulus negotiations are far from completion - in this kind of announcement, market speculators will surely push DX up (my estimations show ATH (All Time High) shortly with more than #102.50 values on DX) and Gold piercing the #1,750.80 on the Medium-term. The Volatility is still high however and Gold may look to set a new Resistance zone first (my estimate #1,900.80) before hitting #1,865.80. The Long-term trend remains Bearish (as long as #MA50 on Daily chart is preserved / September #2 fractal), but with Daily chart reddish on all of its #MA periods, Gold has to make steeper fall and strong consolidation. My Profit on Tuesday’s Sell order was decent, as I won’t rush to engage, waiting for Short-term opening. Notice how, as discussed on previous reports, the DX broke it’s Daily Resistances which was much needed for Gold in order to break first strong Support. The decline on Stock markets also helped (panic capital). Gold is approaching the #1,904.80 psychological barrier on Spot prices and I expect it to be realized before Friday on this mini Bullish leg. Despite the fact that DX is still on a Medium-term Channel Up and well Supported on Daily Chart, Gold is pushed lower (apart from the obvious Stock markets sell-off effect) as Bond notes tested upper levels which added Selling pressure on Gold. After testing #1,877.80 Bottom lately, I am even more certain in my Bearish outlook (remember my Lower Low strategy). I expect small pullback again where I will open new set of Sells as Gold can easily dip to #1,865.80 extension and #1.832.80 (my final Take profit). On every fiscal crisis and World’s economy on a decline, Gold is rising as an Safe-haven asset and DX losses, now situation will be one way around - DX will be a bubble (ATH in my book) and Gold will engage the strong decline - which I am ready for. Regarding today’s session / Critical day for Gold as it is on crossroads for the Short-term. The Daily chart remains a Channel Downl and Hourly 4 chart is on a recovery/pullback mation with the Hourly 4 #MA50 (which has been the Support since September #17) being already invalidated. Daily chart completed two straight red candles for the first time since June #3, which means that if today's candle closes below #1,900.80, my estimations show #1,832.80 Lower Low extension. Gold remains Neutral on the Hourly 4 chart, Supported (on Xau-Usd) at #1,877.80 (October #6 session Low) and Resisted at #1,904.80 (September #17 High). Notice how, even though the Hourly 4 #MA50 broke yesterday, Price-action didn't close an Hourly 4 candle below, so no Selling signals there. On the contrary, the Hourly 1 chart clearly shows how the Hourly 1 #MA50 has rejected any upside attempts #4 times already since October #1. Keep an eye on the Bond notes market, which I believe is the driver these days (along with DX); a break for Gold above #1,904.80 could push to the Daily chart #MA50, which is currently around #1,930’s. Like I said, I need a full candle close above the Resistance, or below (to confirm the Short-term direction) the #MA50 Hourly 4 chart to resume the Bearish bias again. Regarding yesterday's session, the Hourly 4 Channel Down got rejected on it’s Lower High trendline (started on September #16) and is now in the process of pricing its Higher Low (September #24 - October #6 sequence). The sequence is quite clear as the Price-action is currently testing the Hourly 4 #MA50 as a Resistance for the first time since October #5. If broken and Gold closes a full Hourly 4 candle above it, then most likely the Lower High will be the extension (Top) and Gold will soar towards a new Higher High (rough projection: September #20 High of #1,947.80. If on the other hand the Price-action fails to break the Hourly 4 #MA50 and instead tests and break the Support, then I have further downside potential to #1,832.80. Be alerted that the markets (especially the DX) are on high speculation mode ahead of the Wall Street report announcements. By my estimations, Gold’s Bullish outlook has #11.8% chances to develop, while Selling one - #89.2%.

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