XAUUSD (GOLD) - CONSOLIDATION RANGE - SCALP AND SWING IDEAS
- WEEELY
Price has been in that consolodation range since the beginning of 2018. FIVE MONTHS. Multiple tentatives of breaking that resistance above were made, and even though we had a daily trendline and the EMAs giving support for price to break it through, it didn't happen, yet.
So, now, we are still watching price getting rejected from that strong support (it has five months already) and reentering the consolidation range, despite the wick it left behind (more details on daily).
I'd wait for clear signals of break if aiming downside as that 50 EMA (purple one) behaves as TP area (also filling that wick), or scalp longs as price rejected and showed us a tiny bull candle on a support. Let's break it down a little bit more:
- DAILY
On the Daily chart, we have more clues explaining why price got rejected at that point, besides that strong support: a Daily 200 EMA, a so-called demand zone, the need of a retest with that 14 EMA as target and 2 bullish candles showing rejection from that area (we had two more after that). So, here, as the daily trendline is broken and we have a cross on the EMAs, I'd wait for price to do something like this. Of course, mind that we are back in that consolidation range, so it might just get back on consolidation, but I truly believe that price is going to gather a few more orders nearby that middle range (14 EMA, orange one) and shoot down. If that happens, expect something like the arrow is showing to us. I'd mind that gray line as order's points (where price might react) and the gray zones as targets.
- 4 HOUR
Take a look at why GOLD is a wild horse:
This tricky poney is in a consolidation range, created a bearish structure from that beautiful supply zone on top and, as soon it reached the support / demand we've mentioned on weekly, it started to break that bearish structure. Did it break yet? No. Is it posible to be broken? Totally. Common, we're talking about GOLD. I've mapped 3 posibles 4 hour turning points for price to react (besides the 50 EMA (purple) and the 200 (pink), which is in confluence with the last turning point and the broken up trend line.
So, if price is NOT going to stay on the consolidation again (it's been consolidating for a long time, so I'd expect a strong push once it gets away), I'd wait for a retracement until the pink-200-EMA, liquidity grab, and a beautiful push to the downside. For scalpers, as the 4 hour show us, I'd aim a few buys as price is respecting that flag, once price action show us opportunities. For swing trade, I'm gonna wait to see further action after this upward momentum happens. If price starts to get rejected from those areas I've mentioned, I'm going to take sells with a very small risk, and TP1 area being the weekly wick fill, which is in confluence with the strong psychological 1300 area. Mind the gap.
Trade closed: target reached