Some important factors to consider:
Now we got that out of the way, let's dive into the TA.
Here's the current pattern BTC is forming and broke today.
We clearly see a triangle pattern with a sub triangle pattern inside. As this is generally a continuation pattern of the local trend, most people would assume there would be a massive dump next.
Which leads us to the standard "execute order 66": All YouTubers will spam 6k??!!! in their thumbnail titles and the herd shall follow. Market makers set the coffee, grab the lube and click the button.
Guess what happend? We broke prior local high and most likely many of your stop losses have been taken out.
Let's dive into the move:
Currently the move is forming an ascending wedge, which resembles the Elliot impulse wave target wise. And the question is, are we done?
Not perse, however is it worth the risk to stay long? Maybe. Is it worth it to long the breakout? Absolutely not.
We are currently looking at strong potential reversal levels with a most likely max upside of 4% which is the golden ratio of the current top. And a down potential of ATLEAST 17-20% if not 30, 40%.
And lets not forget how many times we saw this happen before on BTC after breaking out of an ascending wedge during a pullback phase of a bullrun.
I'm not saying take the short, thats up to you. I have. But I am advising against longing here.
Goodluck, stay saifu
- We got a major pandemic nearing all time high infections worldwide.
- A hugely unstable situation with in the US and upcoming elections.
- A massive rally in all markets after the black swan event without any proper pullback.
- The dollar at the verge of breaking a multi year pattern, or holding the pattern which would cause a massive bearish reaction in all markets.
- Clear potential top patterns have been formed last month.
- There has been no retest yet of the prior multi year triangle break for BTC.
- BitMex one of the biggest exchanges is under attack by the US which caused 3 high profile functions (including the CEO) to step down as they are being prosecuted. RIP, Arthur. This is a valid reason why the crypto markets could be more bearish than other markets.
Now we got that out of the way, let's dive into the TA.
Here's the current pattern BTC is forming and broke today.
We clearly see a triangle pattern with a sub triangle pattern inside. As this is generally a continuation pattern of the local trend, most people would assume there would be a massive dump next.
Which leads us to the standard "execute order 66": All YouTubers will spam 6k??!!! in their thumbnail titles and the herd shall follow. Market makers set the coffee, grab the lube and click the button.
Guess what happend? We broke prior local high and most likely many of your stop losses have been taken out.
Let's dive into the move:
Currently the move is forming an ascending wedge, which resembles the Elliot impulse wave target wise. And the question is, are we done?
Not perse, however is it worth the risk to stay long? Maybe. Is it worth it to long the breakout? Absolutely not.
We are currently looking at strong potential reversal levels with a most likely max upside of 4% which is the golden ratio of the current top. And a down potential of ATLEAST 17-20% if not 30, 40%.
And lets not forget how many times we saw this happen before on BTC after breaking out of an ascending wedge during a pullback phase of a bullrun.
I'm not saying take the short, thats up to you. I have. But I am advising against longing here.
Goodluck, stay saifu
Trade active:
Broke right through the double top, into box target 3 my short entry
Comment:
Took quite some profit out at 60% profit and lowering stop loss. Even tough BTC is dumping like I predicted, it's not behaving as I anticipated, therefor im lowering risk.
I see strong possibility for a scamwick up before going into the real dump.This coincides with my DXY analysis. I'll link this one in another post.
All in all great trade, but it might not be the one we are looking for.
I see strong possibility for a scamwick up before going into the real dump.This coincides with my DXY analysis. I'll link this one in another post.
All in all great trade, but it might not be the one we are looking for.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Exactly as described above, this didn't feel right. Majority of profit taken at at perfect moment. Stay tuned for my DXY analysis and BTC analysis that will follow.
Took profit 11265 to break even on stop loss being hit because of high leverage. This is now a risk free trade.
Letting it run to stop loss or next take profit, which is backtest of the triangle breakout ~11k.