EURUSD Short Then Long, I think the trade is long

I suspect we'll see a continuation of the Risk Off sentiment that infected the markets at the end of last week. If so then we'll probably see a strengthening of the Dollar before pushing short as we hear more about the US stimulus package. That means in this chart short then long as indicated by the green arrows. I see the draw down as a long trade set up.

On the higher time frame I think the down side for the Dollar is limited but none the less I don't think we've see the bottom yet. The bottom may come once the EU releases it's stimulus plans

I'll update this idea as it develops.