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GBP/USD daily overview

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
The first part of Friday’s trading session was spent with no massive changes to the Pound’s positioning against the US Dollar, as the pair remained fluctuating slightly above the monthly PP at 1.40.

High volatility was introduced mid-session when the US released sluggish employment data. As a result, the Sterling surged 85 pips against its American counterpart within a few hours and breached the 55–, 100– and 200-hour SMAs along the way. This massive bullish momentum was followed by a narrow movement sideways during the Asian session which occurred near the upper boundary of a breached short-term channel up.

It is expected that the pair is tended south in this session just to ease the aforementioned up-move. This fall, however, is likely to be limited by the SMAs and the weekly PP at 1.4050.
Comment:

Despite flashing bearish signals early on Monday, the Sterling managed to maintain its high positioning against the US Dollar and even push higher during the previous session.

As a result, the pair was trading near the weekly R1 and a minor trend-line at 1.4140 this morning. Apart from this resistance, the Pound is constrained by the weekly R2 and a medium-term trend at 1.42 and 1.4220, respectively.

Technical indicators have already started to move lower; thus, the given pair is expected to follow any time soon. The daily low should remain the same as yesterday—the 1.4060/90 territory where the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP is located.

This support is likely to provide a strong barrier for several sessions, as the 55– and 100-period SMAs on the 4H time-frame are likewise located there.
Comment:

Mid-Wednesday was spent with high volatility for the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Trading slightly above the 1.42 mark early in the day, the Sterling managed to use its minor upside potential and shoot up to a downward-sloping trend-line at 1.4220. Along the way, a steep short-term channel up was breached to the downside. A fall did not follow, as the pair was restricted by the 55-hour SMA.

Considering that the Pound has failed to edge higher during the previous two sessions, it is unlikely that the post-Brexit-vote high at 1.4313 is tested today.

Thus, the base scenario favours either a breakout of the 55-hour moving average and a test of the 1.41 area or a minor period of consolidation which should squeeze the rate between the trend-line and the 55-hour SMA.
Comment:

The GBP/USD pair was guided by the 55-hour SMA during the first part of Thursday, while the upper limit was set by a trend-line and the weekly R2. The former was breached mid-session, and the Sterling had remained near this line by Friday morning.

Some upside potential is still apparent in the market, as the Pound might try to reach the 1.43 level. This area is reinforced by the monthly R1, the weekly R3 and the post-Brexit high of 1.4313. The 55– and 100-hour SMAs could continue guiding the pair towards this territory, as supported by bullish technical indicators.

Given that this should be a rather uneventful day, a breakout above this area is unlikely. In terms of support, a possible downside target is be the weekly R1 at 1.4150.
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