Longs above 1.1944 could be an option today we believe.
The impact of disappointing German retail sales data caused H4 price to selloff in early London hours and, once again, breach the underside of H4 demand pegged at 1.1836-1.1854. Despite lower-than-expected euro inflation figures, the pair managed to stabilize around the H4 channel support taken from the low 1.1553 (check out the nice-looking H1 pin bar – positioned directly beneath the aforesaid H4 demand). From that point forward, the single currency entered recovery mode and pushed on up to September’s opening level at 1.1913/1.19, even in the face of optimistic US economic data.
From a technical standpoint, the move higher was also likely reinforced by a weekly supply-turned support zone coming in at 1.1880-1.1777. This, as you can see on the daily timeframe, dragged price back above daily resistance at 1.1878 (now acting support).
Suggestions: From the current weekly support area, there’s room seen for the unit to rally as far north as weekly resistance at 1.2044. However, before we can reach this level the H4 candles will need to overcome the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.1944 as well as the large psychological band at 1.20 (not seen on the H4 chart).
As a result, we feel that the pair is ripe for an upside extension beyond 1.1944 today, targeting 1.20/1.2044. To try and buy this market above 1.1913 (Sept’s open level), however, wouldn’t leave much room for maneuver as 1.1944 would almost immediately be knocking on your door!
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 2.30pm; ISM manufacturing PMI at 3pm; FOMC member Harker speaks at 3.15pm GMT.
From a technical standpoint, the move higher was also likely reinforced by a weekly supply-turned support zone coming in at 1.1880-1.1777. This, as you can see on the daily timeframe, dragged price back above daily resistance at 1.1878 (now acting support).
Suggestions: From the current weekly support area, there’s room seen for the unit to rally as far north as weekly resistance at 1.2044. However, before we can reach this level the H4 candles will need to overcome the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.1944 as well as the large psychological band at 1.20 (not seen on the H4 chart).
As a result, we feel that the pair is ripe for an upside extension beyond 1.1944 today, targeting 1.20/1.2044. To try and buy this market above 1.1913 (Sept’s open level), however, wouldn’t leave much room for maneuver as 1.1944 would almost immediately be knocking on your door!
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 2.30pm; ISM manufacturing PMI at 3pm; FOMC member Harker speaks at 3.15pm GMT.
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