Gold's general commentary: Gold is in the middle of the #10-Month Zone made by the last consolidation phase (April #15 - June #15) before it made it’s August peak. As discussed before, that High Volatility Zone is the Medium-term Support Zone. On a Short-term perspective on the Hourly 4 chart, there is an interesting development with the RSI indicator on a Bullish divergence with the Price-action as it is on Higher Low’s since February #26, while the Price-action is on Lower Low’s. The same sequence has happened both from January #11 - #16 and February #16 - #20. Both led to a #3-session rise above the Hourly 4 Resistance (Gold is still preserving that Resistance). The Hourly 4 Resistance is currently at #1,753.80 on Spot prices. If that’s the case, today’s session would be with thin Volume, and after today’s session peak, I can expect Sellers to re-appear and push Gold as low as they can. However, Technical rules don’t apply on Fundamentally driven sessions (as Traders had chance to confirm that throughout yesterday’s session, with #1,705.80 as an fair Technical value by now). I will engage only if #1,735.80 breaks, calling for #1,700.80 test (#1,727.80 and #1,723.80 are two strong Supports which are guiding #1,700.80 psychological barrier), while on the other side, I am not interested in Buying unless #MA50 breaks on Daily chart, and impulse invalidates #1,760.80 Higher Low zone. Remember: the stronger the Fundamental rise is, the steeper decline will be. I am expecting #1,678.80 within #10 sessions.
Technical analysis: Gold is being kept near the Daily chart’s #MA50 despite the decline on DX and continuous Low’s on equities. Besides the Low volume, it is possible that the Bond Yields are what's keeping Gold Higher. Technically, Gold should already be near #1,723.80 final Support, ready to deliver #1,700.80 psychological barrier extension. Regardless of that, keeping the #1,735.80 - #1,727.80 Support zone intact is alone a positive development for Buyers ahead of the revelation of major move. Hourly 4 chart remains Trading under the Golden Cross (less likely to develop), while it can be counterbalanced by emerging Death Cross on Hourly 1 chart, which Gold respected more than #8 times out of #9. Gold is ready for a downtrend and being Neutral indicates a Medium-term Selling opportunity towards #1,678.80. Keep an eye on the Bond Yields (my main marker at the moment) when the U.S. opens throughout today’s session, in order to get a hand of the Intra-day direction. As of now, I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t respect Technical necessity for a Lower Low sequence.
Technical analysis: Gold is being kept near the Daily chart’s #MA50 despite the decline on DX and continuous Low’s on equities. Besides the Low volume, it is possible that the Bond Yields are what's keeping Gold Higher. Technically, Gold should already be near #1,723.80 final Support, ready to deliver #1,700.80 psychological barrier extension. Regardless of that, keeping the #1,735.80 - #1,727.80 Support zone intact is alone a positive development for Buyers ahead of the revelation of major move. Hourly 4 chart remains Trading under the Golden Cross (less likely to develop), while it can be counterbalanced by emerging Death Cross on Hourly 1 chart, which Gold respected more than #8 times out of #9. Gold is ready for a downtrend and being Neutral indicates a Medium-term Selling opportunity towards #1,678.80. Keep an eye on the Bond Yields (my main marker at the moment) when the U.S. opens throughout today’s session, in order to get a hand of the Intra-day direction. As of now, I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t respect Technical necessity for a Lower Low sequence.
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