long
Comment:
The days before Easter were terrific for the dollar,first Trump trumped the dollar saying it was too “strong”,day after that the inflation data was announced,and everybody was shocked even the FED members. Inflation took a surprising step back in March at the same time retail sales dropped for a second month, according to a pair of U.S. government reports on Friday. Labor Department data showed the consumer-price index fell a larger-than-forecast 0.3 percent, while a measure excluding food and energy fell by the most since 1982. Another hit for the greenback was the US-North Korea confrontation and the warnings(from the USA)for military actions.These events combined lowered the value of the dollar to 6 month low.We think that there is still momentum in this trend and in the begging of the week the dollar may loose more value against the major traded currencies.However there are some news that could have an impact on the greenback,but do not expect enormous movements.The first of them is US Building Permits( Tuesday-18.04., 13:30) The Building Permits released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. Normally, the more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the USD. US building permits declined more than expected in February, down 6.2% to an annual rate of 1.21 million units from 1.29 million units in January. The reading was below analysts’ expectations of 1.26mn, but was 4.3% higher than the period in 2016. The breakdown showed single-family permits soared to a nine-year high while multi-family permits plunged offsetting the overall figure. Housing starts rose 3.0% to an annual rate of 1.29mn for February from a revised 1.25mn for January.
Comment:
This was the highest reading in four months and there was a 6.2% annual increase. The number of permits is expected to rise to 1.25 million this time.Even if the numbers increase there might not be a raise in the value of the greenback because of political news.We recommend following our technical analysis for a more accurate move.On Thursday((20th April 3:30 pm (GMT+2) )we are expecting the report for the weekly unemployment claims.This report is going to have an impact,unlike the report for building permits. The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.Recently the numbers are very positive and for a copule of weeks the released data beats expectations. Claims have remained below 300,000 for 110 straight weeks the longest stretch since 1970 when the employment market was much smaller. The four-week moving average of claims declined by 3,000 to 247,250, indicating the slowdown in Mach was only temporary. The number of new claims is expected to reach 241,000 this week.Even if the real data meets the expectations,we recommend opening long positions.The last report for this week that is going to affect the greenback is the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index((20th April 3:30 pm (GMT+2) ). The Philadelphia Fed Survey is a spread index of manufacturing conditions (movements of manufacturing) within the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. This survey, served as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is interrelated with the ISM manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management) and the index of industrial production. It is also used as a forecast of The ISM Index. Generally, an above-the-expectaitons reading is seen as positive for the USD. Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity weakened from 43.3 in February to 32.8 in March, but still projecting growth. Economists anticipated a larger drop to 30 points. The decline followed an unusually strong in February. New orders inched up to 38.6 in March from 38.0 in February, while the shipments index increased to 32.9 from 28.6. The employment index also expanded to 17.5 in March from 11.1 in February, reaching its highest level since November of 2014. The manufacturing index is expected to decline to 25.6 in April.If the announced data is close to the expectations,we recommend opening short positions