AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The Australian dollar broke down against its US counterpart Wednesday, snapping a seven-day winning streak a few points ahead of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
The solid bearish candle seen yesterday may be sufficient enough to prompt a run to demand at 0.5926/0.6062, though given its distance from current price, bulls may attempt to enter the mix in the interim.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, made its presence known Wednesday. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies were present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is subjective. One method, however, may involve taking partial profit at a 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
Amid a dollar recovery, the Australian dollar gleaned an unfavourable wind out of supply at 0.6461/0.6435 in recent movement.
What’s also noteworthy, from a technical standpoint, is price broke the lower edge of an ascending channel formation from 0.5991/0.6207, with follow-through selling reaching 0.63. Latest from this timeframe, nonetheless, has the H1 candles fading the 0.6350ish region, threatening the possibility of another approach to 0.63.
Price structure on the H1 timeframe also reveals reasonably robust demand lurking beneath 0.63 at 0.6216/0.6246. Traders interested in this area, however, must contend with the possibility of a fakeout materialising to 0.62.
Structures of Interest:
According to the technical framework presented here, AUD/USD reflects a bearish stance at the moment, echoing the possibility of an intraday run through 0.63 to H1 demand at 0.6216/0.6246, offering breakout sellers a potential opportunity today.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The Australian dollar broke down against its US counterpart Wednesday, snapping a seven-day winning streak a few points ahead of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
The solid bearish candle seen yesterday may be sufficient enough to prompt a run to demand at 0.5926/0.6062, though given its distance from current price, bulls may attempt to enter the mix in the interim.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, made its presence known Wednesday. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies were present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is subjective. One method, however, may involve taking partial profit at a 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
Amid a dollar recovery, the Australian dollar gleaned an unfavourable wind out of supply at 0.6461/0.6435 in recent movement.
What’s also noteworthy, from a technical standpoint, is price broke the lower edge of an ascending channel formation from 0.5991/0.6207, with follow-through selling reaching 0.63. Latest from this timeframe, nonetheless, has the H1 candles fading the 0.6350ish region, threatening the possibility of another approach to 0.63.
Price structure on the H1 timeframe also reveals reasonably robust demand lurking beneath 0.63 at 0.6216/0.6246. Traders interested in this area, however, must contend with the possibility of a fakeout materialising to 0.62.
Structures of Interest:
According to the technical framework presented here, AUD/USD reflects a bearish stance at the moment, echoing the possibility of an intraday run through 0.63 to H1 demand at 0.6216/0.6246, offering breakout sellers a potential opportunity today.