0.6350 could serve as platform to pyramid shorts out of Gartley
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The Australian dollar broke down against its US counterpart Wednesday, snapping a seven-day winning streak a few points ahead of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
Thursday, nonetheless, failed to see much follow-through movement unfold, pencilling in a modest hammer candlestick formation off session lows at 0.6263.
Demand at 0.5926/0.6062 remains the next downside target on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, made its presence known Wednesday. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies were present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is subjective. One method may entail reducing risk to breakeven once/if demand at 0.6192/0.6247 makes an entrance; others may hold for the 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing within the lower boundary of demand from 0.6065/0.6106 at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
Although Thursday put up little in terms of price movement, Friday appears poised to approach 0.6350, a level echoing strong confluence as potential resistance (comprised of the 100-period SMA, a 50% retracement at 0.6355 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6353).
Structures of Interest:
An intraday rejection from 0.6350 is feasible, with 0.63 calling as an initial target, followed by a run to 0.6247 (the top edge of H4 demand) and then H1 demand placed within at 0.6216/0.6246. 0.6350, for those short the H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, could also serve as a platform to pyramid current short positions.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The Australian dollar broke down against its US counterpart Wednesday, snapping a seven-day winning streak a few points ahead of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
Thursday, nonetheless, failed to see much follow-through movement unfold, pencilling in a modest hammer candlestick formation off session lows at 0.6263.
Demand at 0.5926/0.6062 remains the next downside target on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, made its presence known Wednesday. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies were present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is subjective. One method may entail reducing risk to breakeven once/if demand at 0.6192/0.6247 makes an entrance; others may hold for the 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing within the lower boundary of demand from 0.6065/0.6106 at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
Although Thursday put up little in terms of price movement, Friday appears poised to approach 0.6350, a level echoing strong confluence as potential resistance (comprised of the 100-period SMA, a 50% retracement at 0.6355 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6353).
Structures of Interest:
An intraday rejection from 0.6350 is feasible, with 0.63 calling as an initial target, followed by a run to 0.6247 (the top edge of H4 demand) and then H1 demand placed within at 0.6216/0.6246. 0.6350, for those short the H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, could also serve as a platform to pyramid current short positions.