goldenBear88

Gold on a Selling sequence / Bullish bias is far away

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Regarding August-September cycle, I am on #12 Profits in a row and only #2 Stop-loss hits which are not more than #11$ both. Gold yesterday broke the #1,937.80 Intra-day Support on the current Daily candle and (marginally) made a new Weekly Low. This is yet not enough to continue Selling the market though as confirmation should be completed once the current Hourly 4 candle break below the (which is now at #1,927.80) Support and downward extension. So far though I already have Spinning Top’s (usual indecision candlesticks) on Hourly 4 chart, but wide below the #MA50 Hourly 4 chart which is a Bearish sign. On top of that the whole Hourly 4 chart is now (marginally) Bearish gradient. Still a long way to go though to the next strong Support and the #1,907.80 extension (August #12 Low). Be alert, Gold is still more tightly correlated to the Stock markets and Bond notes at the moment and to a lesser extent to DX. Yet again, Gold broken firmly #MA50 and provided another Sell opportunity, but on U.S. opening Bell bounced back as a sign of volatility and new Intra-day Swing norm. Personally, Gold is surely extending the Selling sequence and following the breakdown of the former Hourly 4 Channel Down, as Bond notes are gaining for the #3rd straight session and capital is leaving Gold's safe haven towards riskier markets (Stock markets with U.S. futures close to their Annual highs again). See how Gold's strong Sell level of the #1,935.80 Daily Rectangle is fairly symmetrical with the Resistance on Bond notes. On the Short-term fractal, the Support zone was also where the #MA50 - #MA200 rests, which detects that Gold haven't mixed Moving Averages since the July #9, pointing out for an historic decline towards #1,720.80 or even #1,695.80 on Medium-term. As I mentioned, as long as #1,755.80 holds, Gold is more likely to push towards #1,900’s for a Lower Low test keeping the Channel Down well preserved. Tomorrow’s session is packed with the U.S. reports (Non-farm Payrolls), so Fundamentally the real trend will be revealed after the report, since today’s session can only deliver idle movements only as I don’t expect much from low Volumed session. The Short-term Price-action has turned Bearish just over the Hourly 4 first Support #1,720.80. It is interesting to mention that even the Hourly 1 and Daily charts to a certain extent are Bearish. Everything depends upon the NFP tomorrow (and to a lesser extent the Stock markets and Bond notes), so I can't make any Short-term recommendation other than to Trade the breakout. See also how Xau-Usd (spot price) and GC (Futures price) are finally closing the gap and getting into tight range again. Most likely Gold is going towards #1,900’s to test the Monthly Support and then if Price-action gets rejected, then Hourly 4 #MA50 test should be next - and potentially stay Neutral for a few sessions in a symmetrical manner as April #14 - 16. If #1,927.80 gets broken, Gold will be calling for #1,913.80 extension - If today's U.S. session allows and Support gets broken, I will pursue Lower Targets such as #1,905.80.

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