The recent performance of the U.S economy is not up to the expectations despite two rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the Fed chair Janet Yellen has given a slight indication regarding no more rate hikes for this year. The non-farm payrolls reported at the beginning of June showed a less-than-expected increase of 138K new payrolls – significantly lower than the expected 181K. The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 4.3%. Inflation numbers were down compared to their last month’s figures, with the CPI actually falling into negative territory. The reported CPI of -0.1% shows that despite record low unemployment rate, the Fed is still fighting to reach the targeted CPI rate of around 2%.
The quarter-over-quarter GDP rose to 1.4% vs. 1.2% expected, creating a mixed sentiment prior to the closing of the month of June. The US dollar is trading in a range between 1.05 and 1.15 against the euro since January 2015, and closed the month of June close to its upper band of 1.15.
Going into this month's NFP, I'm expecting a short term rally on the US Dollar. From a Elliott Wave analysis point of view, price has potentially completed an internal wave 3, and is expecting a wave 4 correction towards 96.86 - 97.72 area, where we might see sellers coming in again.
Overall, I'm still bearish on the US Dollar on a longer term perspective.
Having said that, tonight's NFP will be key in providing us the essential information to chart the future forecast of the Dollar Index.
** Always manage your risk and trade according to your plan.
The quarter-over-quarter GDP rose to 1.4% vs. 1.2% expected, creating a mixed sentiment prior to the closing of the month of June. The US dollar is trading in a range between 1.05 and 1.15 against the euro since January 2015, and closed the month of June close to its upper band of 1.15.
Going into this month's NFP, I'm expecting a short term rally on the US Dollar. From a Elliott Wave analysis point of view, price has potentially completed an internal wave 3, and is expecting a wave 4 correction towards 96.86 - 97.72 area, where we might see sellers coming in again.
Overall, I'm still bearish on the US Dollar on a longer term perspective.
Having said that, tonight's NFP will be key in providing us the essential information to chart the future forecast of the Dollar Index.
** Always manage your risk and trade according to your plan.