If the USD bottomed last week than the Euro topped. The weekly chart of the Euro is very important at this point. The EurUsd sliced through the 200SMA last week but as soon as the dollar bottomed on the 200 SMA the EurUsd immediately topped, reversed and printed a bearish pin bar with a close below the 200 SMA. So we can assume the dollar is leading. Trump is in control with his export plans . All the others (EU, Japan) are just trying to intervene and make their own currency weaker with more or less success. That is the reason I don't think the dollar will drop continuously as it did in 2014... We are in a currency war and all the others will fight tooth and nails against the weak dollar.
Levels and indicators:
The first thing the average investor asks at these tops : was this rally enough severe?
I think it was. We tested back the 2010 summer bottom and sliced through the 200 SMA but couldn't stay above.
The RSI is was so overbought as at the crisis in 2008. The MACD also at extreme levels...
The collapse of the eurozone far behind us. Interesting how these things are changing in a few months... :D
In January everybody was talking about Brexit, Frexit, Grexit and worthless euro. And today this is the favourite currency again...
How far the correction can go?
I think we are going to testback the breakout and the 10-20 EMA. If the pullback is severe we might tag the 50 EMA on this weekly chart.
The other question : is this an intermediate or just a daily correction? It's hard to tell at this point.
At some point during the second part of this year I would like to see a deeper or less deeper intermediate correction in the euro before it starts to rally again. That's why I think gold is not ready yet in the triangle pattern. We might see one more drop before it finally breaks out of the triangle. The more time they trick out both the bulls and bears the bigger breakout we will have once it occurs.
Levels and indicators:
The first thing the average investor asks at these tops : was this rally enough severe?
I think it was. We tested back the 2010 summer bottom and sliced through the 200 SMA but couldn't stay above.
The RSI is was so overbought as at the crisis in 2008. The MACD also at extreme levels...
The collapse of the eurozone far behind us. Interesting how these things are changing in a few months... :D
In January everybody was talking about Brexit, Frexit, Grexit and worthless euro. And today this is the favourite currency again...
How far the correction can go?
I think we are going to testback the breakout and the 10-20 EMA. If the pullback is severe we might tag the 50 EMA on this weekly chart.
The other question : is this an intermediate or just a daily correction? It's hard to tell at this point.
At some point during the second part of this year I would like to see a deeper or less deeper intermediate correction in the euro before it starts to rally again. That's why I think gold is not ready yet in the triangle pattern. We might see one more drop before it finally breaks out of the triangle. The more time they trick out both the bulls and bears the bigger breakout we will have once it occurs.