Long-term Idea (Weekly Chart below): Main trendlines on Weekly chart (white dotted line) suggests price might be consolidating toward the Daily Support pricing area (blue solid line “D Support” @ 1.07765). Prices seem to have been respecting both upper and lower trendlines so far. Upper trendline tested and 3x rejected on the 4H chart between 05 June 2020 and 16 June 2020. Lower trendline tested and 3x rejected on the 1H chart between 19 March 2020 and 23 March 2020. Stronger proof of price rejection for the upper trendline as it is based on a higher timeframe and analysis below also relevant to this upper trendline.
Short-term Idea (4H Chart on main post): 3x Price rejections at upper trendline across last two weeks (white dotted line, 3x red arrows). Downward retracement of previous major upward impulse has completed 38.2% fib (red dotted line @ 1.12116), expecting continued downward retracement to the 100% fib extension level (blue solid line @ 1.11434) and hopefully make its way to the 161.8% fib extension level (blue solid line @1.10137) at the blue Intermediate Support area.
Sell Entry @ 1.122
Enter around 61.8% fib extension (blue solid line @ 1.12236) as expecting price to rise from Friday’s close (19 June 2020) because previous 4H candle touched lower band of Bollinger Band, expecting upward movement next. Hoping to hit by noon (GMT+1) on Monday (22 June 2020).
TP1 @ 1.115
Expecting 1st TP hit around 100% fib extension (blue solid line @ 1.11434). This was also key level from previous week high based on graphic level and volume on 27 March 2020 (red solid line @ 1.11476). 2x blue dotted downward inner trendlines also suggest retracement consolidating toward the 100% fib extension level.
TP2 @ 1.109
Expecting 2nd TP hit around 61.8% on main fib retracement (red dotted line @ 1.10813) as this fib was drawn from a major uptrend impulse that, on its downward retracement, showed strong confluence with other indicators and price action at all previous levels (i.e.: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%). To be safe, TP2 placed slightly above 61.8% fib as there have been various Day closes between 1.108 and 1.109 across previous weeks.
TP3 @ 1.103
Expecting 3rd TP hit around 161.8% fib extension (blue solid line @ 1.10137). This fib extension is also very close to the blue Intermediate Support area (1.09776 - 1.10195). Price may continue down to the 78.6% main fib retracement (red dotted line @1.09885) within the support area but to be safe, TP just above support region.
SL @ 1.131
Stop Loss just above 23.6% fib extension (blue solid line @1.13038).
Note: Slight risk of downward trend rejection at yellow dotted upward inner trendline. This upward trendline is derived from 3x touches between 14 May 2020 and 18 May 2020 and 1x touch on 25 May 2020 (4x yellow arrows). Trendline was never tested again since then.
*This analysis is a personal opinion and subject to change at any time without notice. Always make your own independent investment decisions and manage risk appropriately.
Short-term Idea (4H Chart on main post): 3x Price rejections at upper trendline across last two weeks (white dotted line, 3x red arrows). Downward retracement of previous major upward impulse has completed 38.2% fib (red dotted line @ 1.12116), expecting continued downward retracement to the 100% fib extension level (blue solid line @ 1.11434) and hopefully make its way to the 161.8% fib extension level (blue solid line @1.10137) at the blue Intermediate Support area.
Sell Entry @ 1.122
Enter around 61.8% fib extension (blue solid line @ 1.12236) as expecting price to rise from Friday’s close (19 June 2020) because previous 4H candle touched lower band of Bollinger Band, expecting upward movement next. Hoping to hit by noon (GMT+1) on Monday (22 June 2020).
TP1 @ 1.115
Expecting 1st TP hit around 100% fib extension (blue solid line @ 1.11434). This was also key level from previous week high based on graphic level and volume on 27 March 2020 (red solid line @ 1.11476). 2x blue dotted downward inner trendlines also suggest retracement consolidating toward the 100% fib extension level.
TP2 @ 1.109
Expecting 2nd TP hit around 61.8% on main fib retracement (red dotted line @ 1.10813) as this fib was drawn from a major uptrend impulse that, on its downward retracement, showed strong confluence with other indicators and price action at all previous levels (i.e.: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%). To be safe, TP2 placed slightly above 61.8% fib as there have been various Day closes between 1.108 and 1.109 across previous weeks.
TP3 @ 1.103
Expecting 3rd TP hit around 161.8% fib extension (blue solid line @ 1.10137). This fib extension is also very close to the blue Intermediate Support area (1.09776 - 1.10195). Price may continue down to the 78.6% main fib retracement (red dotted line @1.09885) within the support area but to be safe, TP just above support region.
SL @ 1.131
Stop Loss just above 23.6% fib extension (blue solid line @1.13038).
Note: Slight risk of downward trend rejection at yellow dotted upward inner trendline. This upward trendline is derived from 3x touches between 14 May 2020 and 18 May 2020 and 1x touch on 25 May 2020 (4x yellow arrows). Trendline was never tested again since then.
*This analysis is a personal opinion and subject to change at any time without notice. Always make your own independent investment decisions and manage risk appropriately.
Trade active:
SELL ENTRY hit - Initial prediction when this analysis was first published was that ENTRY will hit by 10am (GMT+1) as shown below snapshot of the white upward arrows. But to be conservative and due to concerns of a potential resistance and slight testing of the 38.2% main fib retracement level (red dotted line @ 1.12116), I pushed back estimation by additional 2 hours to noon instead. Turns out the 38.2% didn't resist prices and price peaked at 10:03am (GMT+1) as predicted.
Next items to take note of also in below snapshot are the Red Inner Trendline and Yellow Inner Trendline. These are where the next potential hard pressures could come from.
SNAPSHOT:
Next items to take note of also in below snapshot are the Red Inner Trendline and Yellow Inner Trendline. These are where the next potential hard pressures could come from.
SNAPSHOT:
Comment:
Expecting TP1 to hit @ 6pm-8pm (GMT+1)
Comment:
Price 2x rejection at the upper blue dotted inner trendline then broke upward of the trendline. Now price touched and 1x rejected at the red inner trendline. Continue to monitor. 6pm-8pm (GMT+1) TP1 target may not happen anymore.
Comment:
Price 2x rejection at the red dotted inner trendline and closed the day at that level.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Analysis invalid, price hit SL.