As discussed on my yesterday's commentary:" Failure to deliver a supportive sentiment may panic the Stock markets more and Gold may suffer double the effect as DX continues to gain in value with Investors using it as safe haven (note that this is similar to what happened in February and early March). If Gold holds yesterday's Low’s it can pierce the #1,927.80 (within #2 sessions), otherwise look to sell towards the August #12th #1.865.80 Lower Low. It is important to keep in mind that Gold is a Channel Down on Daily chart and #1,920.80 can be ultimate Top and rejection point. Trade the Breakout.". I have closed my set of Sell orders (#1,908.80 - #1,887.80) with huge Profits at it was pure pleasure to move Stop-loss lower as possible, then closing my Sells on late U.S. session. Regarding August-September (early October) cycle, with yesterday's setup - I am on #22 Profits row and #2 Stop-loss hits. Congrat's to Traders who followed my call.
The Hourly 4 Resistance held again and that gave Gold the Bearish sentiment I’ve been expecting. The Daily chart looks like a healthy Channel Down with #1,860.80 - #1,870.80 as an possible extension area. A break above #1,900.80 Resistance (and the #MA200 on Hourly 4 chart) will most likely bring a Lower High around #1,937.80 test, but chances for that are on a very minimum (as long as Gold is Trading below the Resistance, further decline is on the cards). Every pull-back and rejection towards the Daily Resistance is a Short-term Sell opportunity in that case as Gold hasn't broken above it yesterday (Bought back instantly - check June #9 outlook). A factor that may slow down the rate of Gold's rise (but now reverse it after the Fed's statement this last month), is the rising DX. As long as Stock markets are Bullish, Gold may continue the decline along with DX (the two are normally on diagonal correlation) but on a lower pace. Following a Bearish Medium-term (steady low rates in the foreseeable future) outlook from the Fed but bearish if the DX keeps rising, Gold is attempting to find balance between the two factors and has found itself consolidating again around the Hourly 4 Bollinger Bands, naturally on a Neutral setting at the moment. This is similar to the September #9 - #14 consolidation on the Hourly 4 #MA50 with the rough neckline then being #1,937 - #1,951 (excluding the abnormal event on the #10 September). The Daily #MA50 is right above and ready to reject the Price-action as it did on September #8. Since Daily chart is showing small space for further Buying, Bearish scenario seems more possible. As expected the non-successful negotiations for Stimulus acted against Gold's favor and yesterday's rebound broke below the previous Hourly 1 chart Higher Low and was headed for a Hourly 4 #MA50 test for the first time since September #21. If symmetry with September #1 applies, I am looking for a Low test (#1,865.80). This matches perfectly the Daily #MA50 Resistance, which is the key of the trend for the next weeks/month, as Gold is surely in Bearish territory as long as the Price-action Trades below it. I won't rush onto new Position since yesterday's setup brought decent Profits - I will wait for area to be engulfed and if #1,900.80 Resistance rejects the Price-action, I will engage another set of Sells towards #1,865.80
The Hourly 4 Resistance held again and that gave Gold the Bearish sentiment I’ve been expecting. The Daily chart looks like a healthy Channel Down with #1,860.80 - #1,870.80 as an possible extension area. A break above #1,900.80 Resistance (and the #MA200 on Hourly 4 chart) will most likely bring a Lower High around #1,937.80 test, but chances for that are on a very minimum (as long as Gold is Trading below the Resistance, further decline is on the cards). Every pull-back and rejection towards the Daily Resistance is a Short-term Sell opportunity in that case as Gold hasn't broken above it yesterday (Bought back instantly - check June #9 outlook). A factor that may slow down the rate of Gold's rise (but now reverse it after the Fed's statement this last month), is the rising DX. As long as Stock markets are Bullish, Gold may continue the decline along with DX (the two are normally on diagonal correlation) but on a lower pace. Following a Bearish Medium-term (steady low rates in the foreseeable future) outlook from the Fed but bearish if the DX keeps rising, Gold is attempting to find balance between the two factors and has found itself consolidating again around the Hourly 4 Bollinger Bands, naturally on a Neutral setting at the moment. This is similar to the September #9 - #14 consolidation on the Hourly 4 #MA50 with the rough neckline then being #1,937 - #1,951 (excluding the abnormal event on the #10 September). The Daily #MA50 is right above and ready to reject the Price-action as it did on September #8. Since Daily chart is showing small space for further Buying, Bearish scenario seems more possible. As expected the non-successful negotiations for Stimulus acted against Gold's favor and yesterday's rebound broke below the previous Hourly 1 chart Higher Low and was headed for a Hourly 4 #MA50 test for the first time since September #21. If symmetry with September #1 applies, I am looking for a Low test (#1,865.80). This matches perfectly the Daily #MA50 Resistance, which is the key of the trend for the next weeks/month, as Gold is surely in Bearish territory as long as the Price-action Trades below it. I won't rush onto new Position since yesterday's setup brought decent Profits - I will wait for area to be engulfed and if #1,900.80 Resistance rejects the Price-action, I will engage another set of Sells towards #1,865.80
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
