EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422 and finished adding 1.19%, despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 mid-month (unites with long-term trendline resistance ).
July is currently seen toying with the aforesaid supply.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval). It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
As you can see, traders remain undecided right now, leaving sellers in a precarious situation as the aforementioned Fib targets have yet to be met.
H4 timeframe:
Resistance at 1.1348 came under fire Thursday, though buyers were unable to muster enough strength to draw in neighbouring supply located at 1.1415/1.1376. This led to an impulsive decline, listing channel support (prior resistance - 1.1422) back in view. Levels of interest under the aforesaid channel has the July 3 low at 1.1219 to target, as well as demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply).
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trading Thursday, intraday price movement unwound from levels just under 1.1350 in dominant fashion, as the US dollar index stamped in a relatively impressive recovery. After dethroning demand at 1.1316/1.1306, price went on to tackle the 1.13 level and 100-period simple moving average, with price now bound for lows around 1.1265 and demand at 1.1239/1.1251, an area bringing with it 1.1250 support.
Beyond 1.1239/1.1251, eyes will be on demand at 1.1181/1.1202 and the 1.12 level.
Structures of Interest:
According to the above, sellers appear to have the advantage heading into Friday.
Consequently, intraday sellers may make a show under 1.13 today, headed for the 1.1250 neighbourhood (and H1 demand at 1.1239/1.1251), which happens to align closely with channel support on the H4 timeframe. Movement beyond H1 demand at 1.1239/1.1251 will look to H1 demand at 1.1181/1.1202 (and the 1.12 level).