The euro is being stress tested since the past few days!
For years the IMF has reported that Germany gained an advantage from the Euro valuation, while France gets the short end of the stick.
One thing we traders & investors know is that correctly understanding fundamentals does not matter itself, it does not move the price, when it does move the price is when other market participants understand these fundamentals. You got the innovators that get in "too early" and wait a very long time, then the semi-casual early adopters, price starts to pick up speed, and finally the massive herd of casuals are made aware of something and all buy at the same time, you could be right and waiting for 5 years with no one in the world caring, you hear flies for 5 long years and suddenly everyone figures it out at the same time and rushes as fast as possible to buy.
Same story here. It's all out in the open. The radical left has been against frexit because the far right was for frexit. The radical left gets about 1/4 of votes, they are left of socialists, they have some pro business projects, what makes them radical is things such as wanting to tax what they consider to be useless parasites - athletes and celebrities - 100% over a certain income.
In polls Mélenchon, the radical left candidate, is getting terrible numbers now, while the far right for the first time got ~50% of vote intentions.
Can't they agree to disagree and make a coalition where they remove the most extreme stuff?
The radical left (LFI) is absolutely obsessed with "republican values" they mention it all the time, and think migrants should adhere to those or leave, the far right is sort of saying the same thing there.
And LFI wants to cancel the debt, which won't be possible because of the treaties and Germany will never agree, so they might want to leave the union.
If the far right gets to the 2nd turn the media and the whole neo-liberal/elites/bourgeois-liberal cartel will spread propaganda to "fortify" the election.
Can a candidate with affinities with both the radical left & right manage to bring them together on the points they share, and run as a candidate, or is that too complex?
But at the same time the french do not trust the media anymore... And they have literally been voting for socialists & communists for 100 years (happy anniversary), so when they'll be unhappy they'll take a dark turn to the right.
In late 1920 the french got a socialist president, so it's really been 100 years, they voted him out in 1924 because he drifted right, and got a radical socialist instead.
"Radical-Socialist and Radical Republican Party", man that's LFI today xd
en.wikipedia.org/wik...presidents_of_France
So to speak professionally as if I was the IMF or GS I'd say "There is a non-negligeable risk of the far right getting elected and FREXIT happening".
Guess what happened in 2017? Don't be scalping during the next elections in 2022 😃
There will be lots of uncertainty, risk, volatility, I hope it means easy money and not random spikes in the price which means no money for me :(
The EU, since the UK left, is centered around 2 powers Germany and France, so Frexit might kill it.
And also the growing divide between the member states economies...
The declining western civilisation also means that either way other currencies will take a bigger piece of the FX trading pie.
You have to add China, India, and East asian countries, and there might be the middle east and west africa too. Plus a bit of central/east europe too.
The west african rectangle of Nigeria + Benin + Togo + Ghana + Burkina Faso + Ivory Coast = 300 million people, 600 billion usd gdp (450 in Nigeria).
So maybe they could be a part of fx too. But they have their own demographics issues.
The issues are: very high diversity (and European colonialists drew the borders stupidly, ignoring races & ethnicities), too many babies, and adults that could work run away to migrate in rich countries. Also the regulations make it harder to start a business there than in the soviet union but I think it is improving.
I do not see asia completely replacing the west (+japan) but they'll continue to grow their share of the pie, and they might become the dominant force in the world (but slightly, not super dominant) and I think China GDP/capita will peak at or slightly above the world median, I doubt they'll become super rich, just slightly above average at best, all the ultra perma bulls need to chill out.
The west & japan pairs used to make what? 190% (total 200), with the entire rest of the world only making 10% of exchanges.
Today it's about 165/35, it might accelerate a bit soon, and in 30 years be at 100/100. Imagine only half of forex trading involves the usd/yen/aud/cad/west europe.
Imagine the Euro is gutted or even gone in 5 years, and we are looking at a USDFRF chart (without much history, and no support or resistance on the chart).
I hope tradingview will add the "estimated" past price, not sure the levels will matter much. Aaah there might be big changes and we'll have to adapt.
There will still be the USDJPY USDCAD GBPUSD etc, not the end of the world. Just all the EUR pairs gone.
Damn writing this made me feel bad towards the end. Nooooooo I don't want the EURUSD & EURJPY goooooone. I need them badly. That has to be 1/5 of my profits. What will I do with new charts?
Fundamentals, guessing? Trade stocks? 😭
And I do not want giant gaps and insane random swings every 3 days.
One thing we traders & investors know is that correctly understanding fundamentals does not matter itself, it does not move the price, when it does move the price is when other market participants understand these fundamentals. You got the innovators that get in "too early" and wait a very long time, then the semi-casual early adopters, price starts to pick up speed, and finally the massive herd of casuals are made aware of something and all buy at the same time, you could be right and waiting for 5 years with no one in the world caring, you hear flies for 5 long years and suddenly everyone figures it out at the same time and rushes as fast as possible to buy.
Same story here. It's all out in the open. The radical left has been against frexit because the far right was for frexit. The radical left gets about 1/4 of votes, they are left of socialists, they have some pro business projects, what makes them radical is things such as wanting to tax what they consider to be useless parasites - athletes and celebrities - 100% over a certain income.
In polls Mélenchon, the radical left candidate, is getting terrible numbers now, while the far right for the first time got ~50% of vote intentions.
Can't they agree to disagree and make a coalition where they remove the most extreme stuff?
The radical left (LFI) is absolutely obsessed with "republican values" they mention it all the time, and think migrants should adhere to those or leave, the far right is sort of saying the same thing there.
And LFI wants to cancel the debt, which won't be possible because of the treaties and Germany will never agree, so they might want to leave the union.
If the far right gets to the 2nd turn the media and the whole neo-liberal/elites/bourgeois-liberal cartel will spread propaganda to "fortify" the election.
Can a candidate with affinities with both the radical left & right manage to bring them together on the points they share, and run as a candidate, or is that too complex?
But at the same time the french do not trust the media anymore... And they have literally been voting for socialists & communists for 100 years (happy anniversary), so when they'll be unhappy they'll take a dark turn to the right.
In late 1920 the french got a socialist president, so it's really been 100 years, they voted him out in 1924 because he drifted right, and got a radical socialist instead.
"Radical-Socialist and Radical Republican Party", man that's LFI today xd
en.wikipedia.org/wik...presidents_of_France
So to speak professionally as if I was the IMF or GS I'd say "There is a non-negligeable risk of the far right getting elected and FREXIT happening".
Guess what happened in 2017? Don't be scalping during the next elections in 2022 😃
There will be lots of uncertainty, risk, volatility, I hope it means easy money and not random spikes in the price which means no money for me :(
The EU, since the UK left, is centered around 2 powers Germany and France, so Frexit might kill it.
And also the growing divide between the member states economies...
The declining western civilisation also means that either way other currencies will take a bigger piece of the FX trading pie.
You have to add China, India, and East asian countries, and there might be the middle east and west africa too. Plus a bit of central/east europe too.
The west african rectangle of Nigeria + Benin + Togo + Ghana + Burkina Faso + Ivory Coast = 300 million people, 600 billion usd gdp (450 in Nigeria).
So maybe they could be a part of fx too. But they have their own demographics issues.
The issues are: very high diversity (and European colonialists drew the borders stupidly, ignoring races & ethnicities), too many babies, and adults that could work run away to migrate in rich countries. Also the regulations make it harder to start a business there than in the soviet union but I think it is improving.
I do not see asia completely replacing the west (+japan) but they'll continue to grow their share of the pie, and they might become the dominant force in the world (but slightly, not super dominant) and I think China GDP/capita will peak at or slightly above the world median, I doubt they'll become super rich, just slightly above average at best, all the ultra perma bulls need to chill out.
The west & japan pairs used to make what? 190% (total 200), with the entire rest of the world only making 10% of exchanges.
Today it's about 165/35, it might accelerate a bit soon, and in 30 years be at 100/100. Imagine only half of forex trading involves the usd/yen/aud/cad/west europe.
Imagine the Euro is gutted or even gone in 5 years, and we are looking at a USDFRF chart (without much history, and no support or resistance on the chart).
I hope tradingview will add the "estimated" past price, not sure the levels will matter much. Aaah there might be big changes and we'll have to adapt.
There will still be the USDJPY USDCAD GBPUSD etc, not the end of the world. Just all the EUR pairs gone.
Damn writing this made me feel bad towards the end. Nooooooo I don't want the EURUSD & EURJPY goooooone. I need them badly. That has to be 1/5 of my profits. What will I do with new charts?
Fundamentals, guessing? Trade stocks? 😭
And I do not want giant gaps and insane random swings every 3 days.