EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of demand from 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June extending gains and recently reconnecting with the lower shelf of supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance ).
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Last week had EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern (comprised of an 88.6% Fib ret level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 ), and rotate lower into the week’s end. Price has so far remained under the aforesaid area this week.
It’s common to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib ret levels (derived from legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively. Note in between traders will also have to contend with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1025.
In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator recently exited overbought territory.
H4 timeframe:
Buyers and sellers are currently squaring off at familiar support from 1.1226, withstanding a recent downside attempt to lows at 1.1207.
Having seen Monday’s recovery off 1.1226 fail to deliver much in terms of upside (blue), sellers may flex again today and throw some life into demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply). Another area that must be monitored is fresh demand coming in from 1.1115/1.1139.
H1 timeframe:
Mid-way through London trade Wednesday, 1.1250 relinquished ground leaving price free to probe fresh weekly lows ahead of the 1.12 level (a notable support by and of itself). Buyers took over into the close and threw light on 1.1250 as possible resistance, a level that combines with a local trendline resistance (1.1353).
A whipsaw through the aforesaid levels cannot be ruled out, in favour of the 100-period simple moving average currently circling at 1.1277.
Structures of Interest:
Response from monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, along with the daily harmonic bearish bat pattern suggesting lower levels, places a question mark on H4 support at 1.1226.
On account of the above, 1.1250 offers intraday confluence (with trendline resistance) to consider as a sell zone today.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of demand from 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June extending gains and recently reconnecting with the lower shelf of supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance ).
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Last week had EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern (comprised of an 88.6% Fib ret level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 ), and rotate lower into the week’s end. Price has so far remained under the aforesaid area this week.
It’s common to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib ret levels (derived from legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively. Note in between traders will also have to contend with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1025.
In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator recently exited overbought territory.
H4 timeframe:
Buyers and sellers are currently squaring off at familiar support from 1.1226, withstanding a recent downside attempt to lows at 1.1207.
Having seen Monday’s recovery off 1.1226 fail to deliver much in terms of upside (blue), sellers may flex again today and throw some life into demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply). Another area that must be monitored is fresh demand coming in from 1.1115/1.1139.
H1 timeframe:
Mid-way through London trade Wednesday, 1.1250 relinquished ground leaving price free to probe fresh weekly lows ahead of the 1.12 level (a notable support by and of itself). Buyers took over into the close and threw light on 1.1250 as possible resistance, a level that combines with a local trendline resistance (1.1353).
A whipsaw through the aforesaid levels cannot be ruled out, in favour of the 100-period simple moving average currently circling at 1.1277.
Structures of Interest:
Response from monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, along with the daily harmonic bearish bat pattern suggesting lower levels, places a question mark on H4 support at 1.1226.
On account of the above, 1.1250 offers intraday confluence (with trendline resistance) to consider as a sell zone today.