goldenBear88

Engaging my Sell order / Strict Risk management included

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Technical analysis: Gold was close to hitting the #1,832.80 Hourly 4 Lower Low zone as Bond notes are on a spectacular uptrend (# +1.83%), DX was soaring aswell and was near the it’s Daily chart Resistance levels, but Buying motion was Sold back (# -0.08%), Trading on a healthy Channel Up for the #5 straight sessions and the only reason Gold hasn't breached Lower Low trendline yet is constant Volatility of Stimulus hopes/negotiations. Regarding Gold, Price-action is currently on a pivotal point as it is testing the Higher Low trendline on the Hourly 4 Channel Down which is about to be invalidated. The fact that Hourly 4 turned critically Bearish highlights that fact. If September #1 - #4 fractal is yet to be repeated, Gold will consolidate throughout today’s session and give Higher Low test (which is happening currently on a #14 point rise), then engage the aggressive decline. Technically a break above #1,868.80 turns the Short-term bias Bullish and will push for the #1,882.80 Resistance which can pierce Daily chart #MA50. Otherwise Gold will stay within the ranged Price-action I’ve been highlighting. With current DX and Bond notes developments, I can’t see how Gold can reverse into Buying / continuation, as I will keep operating with Sell orders I engaged. Gold is Technically and Fundamentally equipped for a Selling continuation.


Selling bias: As expected, Gold is Trading on my predicted values within a Channel Down since January #5 High. Current Channel Down has a clear Higher Low and Lower Low zone. This is where a Medium-term Trade Sells and Buys respectively (usual sign of indecision). Since yesterday’s session, the Price-action has put a temporary stop to the downtrend as it hasn't made a new Lower Low yet. That stop has formed the Daily Support at #1,839.80 (Daily chart’s #MA200 is priced on it's variance), as Investors are slowly taking Profits on their Sell orders, which Bought back current dip and made Gold flat towards U.S. session. Regarding Hourly 4 chart configuration, #MA200 priced on #1,858.80 caught my attention as an possible Bull breakout (I give less chances for that, but surely possible). Also it is worth noting that November #6 - #12 fractal had similar sequence, where Price-action dipped aggressively starting at November #8, engaged the Short-term recovery on the aftermath, but gave #2 more Lower Low’s and then full scale Bullish reversal occurred / I see no reason why it shouldn’t be the case at the moment. Fundamentally, Gold is bound to give one more Lower Low test near #1,827.80 and #1,818.80 Medium-term Support, while breaking it can engage the #1,795.80 sequence, and turn Gold from Bullish to Bearish on the Medium-term. #1,839.80 is Support to monitor, while #1,868.80 break (my Stop-loss) invalidates current Selling pattern. If #1,868.80 breaks, I will revert into Buying towards #1,890.80 / but Buying (on Gold) might be limited due the Bond notes Trading near the #6 Month Resistance.

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