What a couple of months it's been. My personal expectation was for BTC to find support at the 200wk average and spend most of 2019 rangebound similar to what we saw in 2015. This turned out to be way too pessimistic as BTC spent only a few months at the lows before a face-melting rally that left many looking for an entry point that never materialized. At this point though it seems as if the move might have climaxed, and BTC is forming a pretty ugly head & shoulders formation on the daily chart.
If you look back to the 2015-2017 bull market, you'll notice that the price found support at the 20 week SMA multiple times. It then flipped to iron-clad resistance once it was finally breached in early 2018. We've now decisively shot above it again, and I believe those looking for an entry point who didn't get a chance to buy the bottom will get a great chance to enter on a test of the 20SMA at approximately 5,500-6,000 or so. I don't see us going meaningfully lower than that, and I definitely don't see a re-test of the 200SMA. I will personally be looking to add to long-term spot holdings at those levels.
If you look back to the 2015-2017 bull market, you'll notice that the price found support at the 20 week SMA multiple times. It then flipped to iron-clad resistance once it was finally breached in early 2018. We've now decisively shot above it again, and I believe those looking for an entry point who didn't get a chance to buy the bottom will get a great chance to enter on a test of the 20SMA at approximately 5,500-6,000 or so. I don't see us going meaningfully lower than that, and I definitely don't see a re-test of the 200SMA. I will personally be looking to add to long-term spot holdings at those levels.