Gold looking weak / #1,800 Lower Low extension could be tested

Gold's overview: Gold remains Bearish on a Hourly 1 basis and will continue to do so as long as the Daily chart #MA50 is holding or even Higher Resistance. The Higher Low zone since January #11 is about to break for the first time if Gold close a full Daily chart candle above it (or typically break last Week's #1,872.80 High). I Technically see the potential for an Channel Up extension on Hourly 1 chart as not sustainable, as market is waiting for a catalyst, and uncertainty on global equities could still deliver mixed picture on Gold.


Gold's general outlook: Gold is so far holding the Daily chart #MA50 which is my first Resistance at the moment. If that configuration breaks, the next level to monitor is #1,848.80 which is the final Support to preserve the Short-term Buying bias. I am highly surprised that Gold is still Neutral, Buying every Low as fair Technical price of Gold should be near #1,820.80 (July #16 Low) already. Since Gold again is contained within the Rectangle and upside seems strongly limited, I will reverse my strategy and will Sell Gold if Support breaks. Since Daily chart #MA50 break didn’t brought any significant difference and correlating instruments were adding Buying pressure on Gold in vain, I will turn to Selling.


Technical analysis: The Price-action (Xau-Usd spot prices as always on my commentary) was under Selling pressure on Friday’s session and got higher on each Hourly 4 candle (evident Double Bottom formation on Hourly 4 chart) but on a slow pace which may be an indicator that the Short-term Buying trend is almost over. However, I need to see the Hourly 4 Resistance of #1,873.20 broken and close the market above it to confirm a Buying continuation. As discussed, with the Daily chart Neutral, I believe Gold current decline is well Supported within #1,845.80 - #1,835.80, but if that variance breaks, #1,800.80 psychological barrier should be tested. Still, I won’t take risks below that zone as current Week is packed with macro-economic reports which may add the Volatility index and pause the Bullish reversal.


My position: Since Buying seems strongly limited, I will turn my attention on Selling. #1,848.80 is the first Support to monitor, while I will be more certain to Sell on #1,836.80 (as my Profits were great throughout January, I don't need to rush onto new position). Those are the levels to monitor, and if one of those break, I won't hesitate to Sell and pursue #1,805.80 or less.