When trading a market, I always start by analyzing the long-term trend and then switch to analyzing shorter periods of price action. Knowing what a market is going to do in the next greater time frame, makes it so much easier to determine what is going to happen near term. For me, it keeps me trading with the trend. As for so many things in life, if you go with the flow, and trade with the trend, it’s like playing the game on Easy Mode, and making profits becomes similar to shooting fish in a barrel.
In the case of US Oil the longer term chart shows us that we are coming up on a potential trend change. Price will definitely react against the long-term downwards trend line, there is a recent monthly Dark Cloud, and the month so far looks like a shooting start. Good time to tighten up the stops on the longs if not out right reeling them in, and consider playing oil from the short side.
Back to analysis of the Super Cycle Waves in US Oil. Had to do some digging elsewhere to get the Historical Chart, and what do you know, Oil was flat lined around three and a half, four bucks, until 1974 when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. So Super-Cycle (A) wave up was from the beginning of 1974 until mid-1980 where it topped out just shy of $40. Cyclical periods are determined from significant low to significant low. Then longer term cycles subdivide down into either 2 or 3 sub cycles. The cycle from January 1974 to April 1984 was ~148 months. The two following cycles were 152 and 121 months long. You can see on the chart what I think the likely length of the current cycle will be… we’ll see. The likely cyclical outcome drove the projected Elliott Wave pattern. Additionally, this is labeled as an upwards corrections because wave (X) overlapped wave (B). Thus corrective and not an impulse wave.
In the case of US Oil the longer term chart shows us that we are coming up on a potential trend change. Price will definitely react against the long-term downwards trend line, there is a recent monthly Dark Cloud, and the month so far looks like a shooting start. Good time to tighten up the stops on the longs if not out right reeling them in, and consider playing oil from the short side.
Back to analysis of the Super Cycle Waves in US Oil. Had to do some digging elsewhere to get the Historical Chart, and what do you know, Oil was flat lined around three and a half, four bucks, until 1974 when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. So Super-Cycle (A) wave up was from the beginning of 1974 until mid-1980 where it topped out just shy of $40. Cyclical periods are determined from significant low to significant low. Then longer term cycles subdivide down into either 2 or 3 sub cycles. The cycle from January 1974 to April 1984 was ~148 months. The two following cycles were 152 and 121 months long. You can see on the chart what I think the likely length of the current cycle will be… we’ll see. The likely cyclical outcome drove the projected Elliott Wave pattern. Additionally, this is labeled as an upwards corrections because wave (X) overlapped wave (B). Thus corrective and not an impulse wave.
