Trump is saved, OPEC is at a crossroads, May is in danger

Special counsel Robert Mueller announced the results of his two-year investigation of interference in the US presidential elections in 2016, as well as the role of Russia and Trump in it. The results of the investigation might have led to the start of impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. But no significant evidence was found against Trump. And this means that the impeachment is canceled (according to the bookmaker PredictIt, the probability of impeachment is about 11%, whereas last week the figures exceeded 20%, and 50% in January).

However, Trump shouldn’t relax at all. Democrats promise to continue to "dig into him" - in the list of potential charges, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, corruption, etc. Despite the fact that this news is more likely a plus to the dollar, we continue to recommend its sales in the foreign exchange market.

As a baseline, we consider a vector change in the Fed’s monetary policy. Fed's Charles Evans said that the Fed may ease monetary policy if the risks of a slowdown in the economy increases. As a result, markets with a 90% probability expect a reduction in rates by December.

Theresa May, the situation is getting more complicated by the minute. Voices about the necessity of her resignation due to Brexit failure is louder and louder. Yesterday, Parliament voted to take control of Brexit. From now on the Parliament will determine the strategy of Brexit. On Wednesday, the most important voting will take place on options for the development of events, which include a second referendum, the decision to stay in the EU, leave the EU without a deal, or cancel Brexit.

The oil market is “confused” and cannot decide whether to grow or fall. On the one hand, Citigroup analysts raise oil forecasts. In their opinion, in 2019 Brent oil will cost an average of $ 70 per barrel (+ 5% to current prices). On the other hand, the action of OPEC + No. 2 is soon coming to its end, and there is no consensus on its future fate. We should not expect clarity before April and perhaps a decision would be taken directly upon the expiration of the current agreement period - in June. Despite the lack of clarity, we see no reasons for panic and continue to recommend buying an asset on the intraday basis.

Our other positions are unchanged: we buy gold on the intraday basis, we are looking for points for the Russian ruble sales (both on the intraday basis and medium-term positions).