goldenBear88

Set of Sell orders intact

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold is on an interesting Technical area on the Hourly 4 chart. The dominant pattern on a Daily chart however is a Channel Down since the August #18th High. Since September #21, the Hourly 4 RSI was ascending being on Higher Highs, which was on a Bullish divergence with the actual Xau-Usd Spot Price-action which is headed to Lower Highs and Lower Lows. I have seen the exact same sequence on August #20 - #26. The RSI was then ascending too, while the Price-action made three Lower Lows on the bottom trendline of the Channel Down. That suggests that Gold may be pricing a Top here (temporary or not), and since rejected on the September #1 RSI Resistance, naturally Gold should level the Overbought Williams% and the Selling sequence can’t be expected as an surprise. DX is pulling back while equities are rising, so I believe that soon Gold will make a Lower High run towards the Hourly 4 Support of #1,900.80, unless #1,937.80 breaks first (Daily chart #MA50), in which case Gold turns from Bearish to Bullish regarding the Medium-term. Another fact to support the downtrend, Gold is rejected on Top of the Channel Down that started on August #18 and Hourly 4 chart is at it’s highest Technically it has been since August - September fractal / Overbought on all majors RSI. Keep an eye on the Stock markets and DX in order to accurately track the markets on Short-term as the Medium-term has now the Daily #MA50 as Resistance and #1,900.70 as Support (which is considerably lower). However, the Daily chart RSI is on the lower levels but in fact far away in points form the March bottom of #30.000. Typically when the RSI hits these levels it finds Sellers and that has been so consistent since the August #2018 market bottom. The downside Target area is #1,880.80 - #1,890.80, while on Medium and Long-term, #1,750.80 is surely on the cards. Regarding today's session and early E.U. opening, Gold is Trading within a Channel Down on Daily chart with the latest Lower High at #1,937.80 (representing #MA50 aswell) as the Higher High is priced at #1,968.80 extension. If Lower High gets broken, my pattern is invalidated. In my opinion, I should keep focusing on the Hourly 4 chart RSI level and enormous Selling pressure which aims lower Targets below the Hourly 4 Support (#1,900.80 psychological barrier) which is the key. So as long as the Lower High and Hourly 4 Support are intact, chances are for a re-test of #1,885.80 (even a Lower Low at #1,832.80 if the Channel Down holds). However, as long as those points are intact, Price-action fluctuation (which is evident on the charts) will continue. If #1,937.80 Resistance breaks, Gold will most likely resume the Medium-term Bull trend. I doubt this week’s news are enough to push through, most likely the market (and DX which is the key for Gold's recent struggles) is waiting for a catalyst. Statistically, every time from September #2 / when RSI get’s rejected near the Resistance, Price-action starts the aggressive decline of #30$ spread within #3 sessions (rejection occurred on yesterday's session). Bottom line: Price-action can also follow the Hourly 4 Channel Up and break the Resistance - so my suggestion for Traders with smaller margin is to keep away from the market. My Profits number was huge throughout August-October and that's why I can take such risks and keep my set of Sell orders. Needless to say - I am still heavily on Bearish side.

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