Bullish Gold

Gold could rise above #1,700.80 per ounce if the Federal Reserve cuts rates four times before June 2020. Global uncertainty has increased safe-haven demand for Gold and driven prices lower, but that is not the case at the moment. It would be the third key psychological level the Gold has breached in a year: it edged over #1,400 in July and #1,500 in August. Gold, long known as a safe-haven asset, has spiked this year as global uncertainty has pushed investors out of riskier assets like Stocks. Other safe-haven assets have also rallied. A Bonds rally has pushed US Treasury yields to new lows, and even the DX has maintained its strength amidst market volatility. The deteriorating global outlook- driven largely by the ever-escalating trade war between the US and China/Coronavirus- is creating fear in the markets that the US and other global economies could be nearing a recession. The Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell have repeatedly said that they're watching the data and are ready to step in as necessary with rate cuts. My analysis shows that the Fed will make four 25-basis-point cuts between now and June #2020, which will led nominal yields to fall push real yields near zero. This raises the appeal of holding Gold given economic uncertainty. As the price of Gold rises, it loses opportunity cost, and safe-haven demand for the asset increases. Demand by my calculations is likely to grow further with rising expectations of economic deceleration given the state of US-China trade tensions. Holdings of Gold in ETFs are heading toward highs last seen in #2012 which gives us straight indication that World Crisis is not far away. I see Gold averaging #1,700.80 an ounce in #2020. If the Fed moves more aggressively than expected, Gold is likely to move above my forecast for that period. Short-term: Despite Friday's strong response to #1,470.80, Gold failed to maintain those high levels and was rejected on the Hourly 4 Resistance. Yet, it still found Support on the Daily Higher Low, which remains Neutral and has high potential to contain this Bullish pull back. Factors that may break this support: 1) the DX being on Higher High levels and about to be rejected 2) Stocks are rising and Gold should do the same. Also the Weekly chart has been Oversold for some time and unless Gold trades at least sideways for this week, Daily chart will always pressure for a test with the #MA200. Personally, as long as #1,455.70 Support holds, I remain Long on my position as I am on Bullish perspective on Short-term as aggressive Bull Gap can happen anytime.