Gold on recovery candles, but staying Bearish on Short-term
As discussed on my yesterday's commentary: "My position: I am currently operating with my Selling order which has #1,670.80 as an Target and my main point of interest, and will add more Selling orders if #1,670.80 breaks / calling for #1,655.80 Lower Low extension." - I have closed first Selling position lately (#1,705.80 - #1,691.80) with Profits, and on current one (#1,691.80 - #1,681.80) Profit was not that great in comparison on the first one, but all in all / I had to close my second position a bit earlier than expected because of security reasons and possible reversal. Regardless, it was an decent slide on Gold in general where I made decent Profits.
Gold's general outlook: As discussed, as long as #1,719.80 (Xau-Usd numbers on my commentary) holds, Gold is more likely to push towards #1,680’s for a 9-Month Low test, but still within the Hourly 4 Neutral zone. This week is packed with Fundamental announcements the real trend should be revealed (as Stimulus was already digested by markets), since today’s Price-action delivered the session High test around #1,714.80, triggering most of the Sellers Stop-losses (which didn't Sold their positions on time) and as Bond notes reversed and DX printed red candle below the Hourly 1 Support, Gold again reversed and is currently Trading around #1,700.80 configuration. This shows how unstable market has become and that I should expect side Swings on Short-term, but those are not cause for an alarm as underlying trend remains Bearish. The Short-term Price-action has turned Bearish just over the Hourly 4 first Resistance and it is interesting to mention that even the Hourly 1 and Daily charts to a certain extent are Bearish. Everything depends upon the Bond notes recovery and to a lesser extent DX, so I can't make any Short-term recommendations yet. See also how Xau-Usd (spot price) and GC (Futures price) are finally closing the gap and getting into tight range again. Regarding today’s session - I do not expect much from it as I expect the major decline within #2 sessions since last #7 out of #7 Tuesday’s sessions were idle without any surprises. Technically, #1,670.80 should be next extension, with Support zone on #1,688.80 - #1,690.80 - if tested, Gold might potentially stay Neutral for a few sessions in a symmetrical manner as April #14 - 16. If #1,719.80 gets broken, #1,727.80 should be furthest extension.
Technical analysis: Gold resumed the decline and as expected throughout yesterday's session, tested the upper Support variance of #1,673.80 - #1,681.80 and got rejected - needless to mention, movement is within my models and Price-action is Trading on expected values. Regarding the correlations, Bearish DX related developments, currently on Selling spree as on the contrary, Gold is showing nothing but Bearish signs (without current semi-recovery visible on the markets). Along with Bond notes on indecision candles but Trading near Resistance, personally I think Gold is equipped to dip additional #27 points within #5 sessions horizon. I expect Neutral consolidation ahead and Selling opportunity towards the #1,780.80 (former Support always becomes the Resistance and same another way around/broken Resistance becomes the Support). I believe that crossing the Resistance level on DX and Bond notes is the necessary Selling confirmation on Gold. It is important to note that DX is once again nicely correlated with Gold again / values taken on yesterday's session: (DX # +0.38% - Gold was # -1.16%), and is a sign that DX enters a phase where it could be monitored (along with Bond notes, attracting capital fleeing from Gold) as an main correlating assets.
My position: Once the correlating assets start working favorably to my pattern, only then I will be contemplating Selling the market. Since I am more than satisfied with my Profits, I won't be making any fast decisions. I will wait for area to be engulfed and Sell only if #1,694.80 - #1,692.80 Support zone breaks. Other than that, I won't be interested in Buying Gold on Short-term, no matters how strong the recovery will be.
Gold's general outlook: As discussed, as long as #1,719.80 (Xau-Usd numbers on my commentary) holds, Gold is more likely to push towards #1,680’s for a 9-Month Low test, but still within the Hourly 4 Neutral zone. This week is packed with Fundamental announcements the real trend should be revealed (as Stimulus was already digested by markets), since today’s Price-action delivered the session High test around #1,714.80, triggering most of the Sellers Stop-losses (which didn't Sold their positions on time) and as Bond notes reversed and DX printed red candle below the Hourly 1 Support, Gold again reversed and is currently Trading around #1,700.80 configuration. This shows how unstable market has become and that I should expect side Swings on Short-term, but those are not cause for an alarm as underlying trend remains Bearish. The Short-term Price-action has turned Bearish just over the Hourly 4 first Resistance and it is interesting to mention that even the Hourly 1 and Daily charts to a certain extent are Bearish. Everything depends upon the Bond notes recovery and to a lesser extent DX, so I can't make any Short-term recommendations yet. See also how Xau-Usd (spot price) and GC (Futures price) are finally closing the gap and getting into tight range again. Regarding today’s session - I do not expect much from it as I expect the major decline within #2 sessions since last #7 out of #7 Tuesday’s sessions were idle without any surprises. Technically, #1,670.80 should be next extension, with Support zone on #1,688.80 - #1,690.80 - if tested, Gold might potentially stay Neutral for a few sessions in a symmetrical manner as April #14 - 16. If #1,719.80 gets broken, #1,727.80 should be furthest extension.
Technical analysis: Gold resumed the decline and as expected throughout yesterday's session, tested the upper Support variance of #1,673.80 - #1,681.80 and got rejected - needless to mention, movement is within my models and Price-action is Trading on expected values. Regarding the correlations, Bearish DX related developments, currently on Selling spree as on the contrary, Gold is showing nothing but Bearish signs (without current semi-recovery visible on the markets). Along with Bond notes on indecision candles but Trading near Resistance, personally I think Gold is equipped to dip additional #27 points within #5 sessions horizon. I expect Neutral consolidation ahead and Selling opportunity towards the #1,780.80 (former Support always becomes the Resistance and same another way around/broken Resistance becomes the Support). I believe that crossing the Resistance level on DX and Bond notes is the necessary Selling confirmation on Gold. It is important to note that DX is once again nicely correlated with Gold again / values taken on yesterday's session: (DX # +0.38% - Gold was # -1.16%), and is a sign that DX enters a phase where it could be monitored (along with Bond notes, attracting capital fleeing from Gold) as an main correlating assets.
My position: Once the correlating assets start working favorably to my pattern, only then I will be contemplating Selling the market. Since I am more than satisfied with my Profits, I won't be making any fast decisions. I will wait for area to be engulfed and Sell only if #1,694.80 - #1,692.80 Support zone breaks. Other than that, I won't be interested in Buying Gold on Short-term, no matters how strong the recovery will be.
- My official and only Telegram Channel: t.me/goldenBear88
- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
