A quick EWA.
The triangle ABCDE might be confirming the breakout, or maybe there's some more room to the downside to complete the E (near 1300, however given the current PA it seems unlikely).
Fundamentals to monitor:
- Gold in a triangle cycle ABCDE (confirmed to the upside since the last high was higher than the previous).
- First expansive wave 12345 and correction wave ABC finished at the first higher low.
- Second expansive wave 12345 and correction wave ABC finishing at the third higher low.
- Now started a new expansive 12345, currently at the 3rd wave in the making, possibly reaching a 5th near 1440.
The triangle ABCDE might be confirming the breakout, or maybe there's some more room to the downside to complete the E (near 1300, however given the current PA it seems unlikely).
Fundamentals to monitor:
- Inflation rising since 2015, keep tracking that for any change.
- Interest rates hikes (bad in the short term, good in the mid term).
- Bond market, special attention to yields. Rising yields could trigger a stock crash, in the short to mid term expect some volatility and lower prices due to liquidations into USD.
- DXY index. As per suggested in the previous one.
- Stock index. As per suggested in the previous one, expect some volatility if stocks crashes, later to regain impulse.
Comment:
2nd figure, triple ABC combo forming WXYXZ pattern.
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3rd, Diagonal expansion
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4th, ABCDE triange cycle (blue tl)
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5th, diagonal expansion
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6th, forecast.
I see 2 possible scenarios (there could be millions but well)
Either a Triangle ABCDE (pink) or finally an impulse wave 12345.
Why am I inclined for the second one? First of all, gold has already recorded a new higher high compared to the previous one, this might mean bulls are gaining momentum (also, signaling the end of ABCDE triangle cycle, blue tls). It is also accumulating volume right at the handle of the CUP. Check the Handle with Cup pattern in the first image.
I see 2 possible scenarios (there could be millions but well)
Either a Triangle ABCDE (pink) or finally an impulse wave 12345.
Why am I inclined for the second one? First of all, gold has already recorded a new higher high compared to the previous one, this might mean bulls are gaining momentum (also, signaling the end of ABCDE triangle cycle, blue tls). It is also accumulating volume right at the handle of the CUP. Check the Handle with Cup pattern in the first image.
Comment:
Friday's PA would be indicating wave 2 is discarded. And potentially confirming a diagonal expansion. My sentiment still bullish, pinbar on weekly close, bullish engulfing on daily. Let's see how it evolves.
I'm going to explain each one of the counts. Starting with the 1st figure.