US Equity Markets: Manipulation ensues, Key Market Points.
I had really good entries back in my previous ideas at the recent bottom (linked in post). Sold them off pretty quickly due to the large uncertainty in world conditions in this time. I'm still expecting a good amount of volatile sideways action and promptly uptrend when COVID-19 nears calming. I have good belief that the markets are somewhat efficient and priced in the fact that the economy (Fed) is providing lots of support and liquidity to businesses all around and don't want a major financial turmoil crisis to happen yet again. The markets to me are saying 'this will pass and we will get back on track'. The Fed is offering stimulus to ensure liquidity of markets with no possibility of dry up. Analysis of bond/credit markets has great evidence.
Stocks being 'propped' up by this is actually an indirect, late ripple effect from other financial events. To be more clear, when the Fed uses their powers, rates/credit stays low and credit/debt stays loose, operating cost to borrow increases, economic activity grows, real GDP grows, if all else goes well then stocks go up. This happens in its own fluid manner in which large amounts of money with a trillion market factors creates this action and volatility in short amounts of time. In times of crisis the market is hyper-capitalistic and tears down the weaker parts to be stronger in the future (continual GDP growth). In such I am still long on the economy long-term and especially companies within NASDAQ. With this in mind, invest in the way you can actively manage and sustain. I'm looking for mid-long term investments that can benefit greatly coming out of this, being emotional in these times is detrimental. (Long on nasdaq ETFs).
My TA is in a system that I codified to help increase predictive power mainly in price entry/exit points. I expect some sideways action, a retrace, then upwards action. Key time points of interest are circled green. I believe the sideways manipulation has some trend/pattern and tends to repeat in certain situations. Cash is always king and is god in times like this, precisely why I'm topped up and ready for a perfect point for me to enter and hold good investments. The next 1-3 years have serious ROI potential.
Stay safe.
This is speculation, not advice, use your own money purely at your own risk. This is also me rambling at 4am after intensive market research.
Stocks being 'propped' up by this is actually an indirect, late ripple effect from other financial events. To be more clear, when the Fed uses their powers, rates/credit stays low and credit/debt stays loose, operating cost to borrow increases, economic activity grows, real GDP grows, if all else goes well then stocks go up. This happens in its own fluid manner in which large amounts of money with a trillion market factors creates this action and volatility in short amounts of time. In times of crisis the market is hyper-capitalistic and tears down the weaker parts to be stronger in the future (continual GDP growth). In such I am still long on the economy long-term and especially companies within NASDAQ. With this in mind, invest in the way you can actively manage and sustain. I'm looking for mid-long term investments that can benefit greatly coming out of this, being emotional in these times is detrimental. (Long on nasdaq ETFs).
My TA is in a system that I codified to help increase predictive power mainly in price entry/exit points. I expect some sideways action, a retrace, then upwards action. Key time points of interest are circled green. I believe the sideways manipulation has some trend/pattern and tends to repeat in certain situations. Cash is always king and is god in times like this, precisely why I'm topped up and ready for a perfect point for me to enter and hold good investments. The next 1-3 years have serious ROI potential.
- 6+ month viable positions with active re-balancing
- Wait out sideways shake
- A key factor and decision point is ~7300, market conditions will have to re-analyzed at this point to ensure good entry and position capital.
- Very small short position could be risked at the the ~8000 level and then waiting for good entry once bottomed out.
Stay safe.
This is speculation, not advice, use your own money purely at your own risk. This is also me rambling at 4am after intensive market research.
Comment:
Sideways action, check!