Bitcoin: Will Rise to 12,000+ (Again). And Then Fall.
While this will inevitably be an unpopular opinion on TradingView it is my strong belief that many people continue to be exceptionally - and negligently bullish on Bitcoin (and their counterpart 'alts'). Many people who have touted its 'going to moon' for the sole reason that its resurfaced from its far away 3000 level hibernation are simply heavily invested in Crypto and forming a key and clear confirmation bias.
While its unpredictability and volatility certainly can bring about a heavy swath of euphoria, I believe Bitcoin is still far away from surpassing 20,000. Will it get to 20,000 and above? I believe it will, however, I believe that trip will be halted until slightly after the next "real" economic expansion which could be anywhere from 2022 or 2023 or 2024 depending on timings where true big money is willing to wait, hold and take risks.
Let me first answer a few popular questions that I am sure people may ponder: 1) No I have not lost considerable money in Bitcoin, and 2) I am not a Crypto hater. In fact, I believe in the complete opposite and totality of that potential statement; I believe anything (morally and legally) that one can increase his or her wealth from, should be praised.
One of the major reasons I believe Bitcoin will fail in the near-term is ultimately the timing of the global economic conditions around the world; monetary policy easing; record-level debt; and ultimately the resurgence of proven "safe-haven" assets. Contrary to what some believe, I do NOT think people will look or at Bitcoin (in today's current world) as a "safe haven" during down-turning economic times. Nonetheless, if economic conditions were strong enough where money would exit from safe-haven investments considerably (not the case), I would actually believe Crypto would re-test ATHs.
Because of a likely global recession occurring at some point in 2020 or 2021, I strongly believe much of the big money will begin slowly exiting Bitcoin at key peaks and transition to more "proven" assets like Gold and Silver; not necessarily because they want to - but because they have to, to preserve capital. Ultimately, I believe the more "typical" investors will get burned in the long run on Crypto until the next economic expansion.
Yes, a well formulated argument can certainly be made that Crypto is a complete unrelated "asset" to any data, which is true. However, I believe big money will, as previously noted, ultimately turn to proven assets during economic downturns which will prevent Crypto from "going to the moon". I believe people will always trade Crypto no matter what the overall economic conditions are which will keep Crypto from going to 0 like some think, however, its decreased buying activity will halt it from reaching record-level status.
What about the fact that people say you can convert on some platforms Bitcoin to Gold - doesn't that mean they are equivalent assets in their own right? No. Bitpay (for example) acts as one type of middle man to sell Bitcoin into Cash to in-turn use to ultimately buy Gold and as such, this a moot argument.
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Where do I believe Bitcoin will go? I certainly see a re-test somewhere around 12,500. Could it go higher? Yes, perhaps by a little bit, however, I place a very low confidence level it will surpass 14,000. I see Bitcoin forming a base around 2000 for a while before ultimately surging within the next 4-6 years.
- zSplit
While its unpredictability and volatility certainly can bring about a heavy swath of euphoria, I believe Bitcoin is still far away from surpassing 20,000. Will it get to 20,000 and above? I believe it will, however, I believe that trip will be halted until slightly after the next "real" economic expansion which could be anywhere from 2022 or 2023 or 2024 depending on timings where true big money is willing to wait, hold and take risks.
Let me first answer a few popular questions that I am sure people may ponder: 1) No I have not lost considerable money in Bitcoin, and 2) I am not a Crypto hater. In fact, I believe in the complete opposite and totality of that potential statement; I believe anything (morally and legally) that one can increase his or her wealth from, should be praised.
One of the major reasons I believe Bitcoin will fail in the near-term is ultimately the timing of the global economic conditions around the world; monetary policy easing; record-level debt; and ultimately the resurgence of proven "safe-haven" assets. Contrary to what some believe, I do NOT think people will look or at Bitcoin (in today's current world) as a "safe haven" during down-turning economic times. Nonetheless, if economic conditions were strong enough where money would exit from safe-haven investments considerably (not the case), I would actually believe Crypto would re-test ATHs.
Because of a likely global recession occurring at some point in 2020 or 2021, I strongly believe much of the big money will begin slowly exiting Bitcoin at key peaks and transition to more "proven" assets like Gold and Silver; not necessarily because they want to - but because they have to, to preserve capital. Ultimately, I believe the more "typical" investors will get burned in the long run on Crypto until the next economic expansion.
Yes, a well formulated argument can certainly be made that Crypto is a complete unrelated "asset" to any data, which is true. However, I believe big money will, as previously noted, ultimately turn to proven assets during economic downturns which will prevent Crypto from "going to the moon". I believe people will always trade Crypto no matter what the overall economic conditions are which will keep Crypto from going to 0 like some think, however, its decreased buying activity will halt it from reaching record-level status.
What about the fact that people say you can convert on some platforms Bitcoin to Gold - doesn't that mean they are equivalent assets in their own right? No. Bitpay (for example) acts as one type of middle man to sell Bitcoin into Cash to in-turn use to ultimately buy Gold and as such, this a moot argument.
--
Where do I believe Bitcoin will go? I certainly see a re-test somewhere around 12,500. Could it go higher? Yes, perhaps by a little bit, however, I place a very low confidence level it will surpass 14,000. I see Bitcoin forming a base around 2000 for a while before ultimately surging within the next 4-6 years.
- zSplit
Comment:
Looking bang on so far. :)
Stage peaks are getting lower and lows are getting lower - never a good combination. I believe much of the big money will exit BTC at key peaks and head over to Gold.
Trade at your own risk but it looks like Bitcoin is heading back to 3000.