dryanhawley

Trader Psychology, Money Management, managing risk

Education
CME_MINI:NQ1!   NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures
Before we got the BIG 14 day correction I was doing EXTREMELY well in my trades (30 winning trades in a row over 30 days). My contract (work) ended the same day the correction started... This post is not about me, it is what I learned that might help others...

I also did OK shorting. I was buying SQQQ and SPXS as shorts and selling them the next day, along with a small long position, in case we went up. I changed my account to be able to trade Futures, out of an idea that I couldn't set STOPS with these ETFs, due to
what is called a "good faith violation" (if you buy an ETF you can't sell it the same day, without a daytrading violation).

Here are the BIGGGEST lessons. The first day I could trade futures I picked a Futures product that has too much leverage called ES1! in TV ( SPX $50/point) in a matter of seconds It was down $6,000. We might THINK that we will think clearly with a big loss.
We might think we will logically think, "I had better take a loss now before it get's worse" but when we are in a trade with a big loss (for us) FEAR set's in and the higher brain functions aren't available.... Our brain core is in control (animal instincts) flight or
fight, ideas like "I know I am right, it will come back", or we go into denial unwilling to accept a loss....

in reality A TRADE sometimes continue to run against us, no matter how good we are we all have losing trades When we have a big (for us) loss, we feel we must IMMEDIATELY get our money back. The reality is that Paper takes advantage of these irrational
feelings, we go into reaction mode, and LOSE more, and more.

So, now that it's clear to me that Futures really are dangerously leveraged... I pick in advance a predetermined loss that I can come back from... For example a single YM (DOW futures) contract at $5 per point with a 20 point stop $100... In advance I dedided
I will stop trading for the day if I have 2 losing trades in a row... The other key is letting your winners RUN... many new traders see a small win and grab the profit before it can run big (like an unmanaged loss does... In fact if you lose big it is proof that you can win biog too!
If you let your winners run.

So beginning on Monday I am going back to my beloved ETFs... TQQQ and SPXL for longs and SQQQ and SPXS for shorts... By buying both just before the market closes, one will go up in value between 9:30 and 10 AM, and as Mojo points out every day, the market usually, more
often than not will run the opposite direction between 10 AM and 10:30. This removes all the stress from trading... all you or I have to do is to sell the winner at 10 AM and dump the other one at 10;30 and we are free for the rest of the day, which is mostly chop anyway
the market can reverse many times a day, and the more we trade the more losing trades we can rack up... For me at least I always make the most from 9:30 to 10;30 if I keep trading I usually give it all back.

I hope this helps those new to trading. As for predictions I think we will probably go up on Monday until 10 AM or so, then reverse to around 10:30.

Another "Paper" strategy i want to point out I have observed is, quite often, Those who Own the Markets, whom I call Paper in chat (The Bilderbergs) take the market one direction from 9:30 to 9:35 or 9:40 then reverse, or reverse several times before picking a direction..
My advice is to be patient and not enter a trade until 9:40.

Good Luck Friends, Kauai Dave

Please check out Kauai Dave Pivot Traders on youtube. www.youtube.com/channel/UCNpY7S_s1cxw0cer4PyEEMQ
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