This is just to track my purchase of AUD today. I expect it to appreciate vs the EUR and USD over the coming months;
Australia is significantly exposed to commodity prices, which as showing signs of recovery, and
Australia has government debt at lower levels than most of the rest of the OECD (I have seen % levels ranging fro 40.5 to 66% - depending on the source) esp Canada, the U.S., U.K, and Japan and will be better positioned to react in a global economic downturn. Just reading an interesting report based on a late 2018 survey of 140+ financial advisors (www.invesco.com.au/h...ncome Study_2019.pdf). At that time 77% expected the markets to change direction within the following 2 years.
I find it interesting that stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCod... does not update publicly available government debt levels any more.
The number 1 concern was sovereign debt, #4 corporate debt levels, #5 consumer debt levels,
#2 & 3 were an emerging market crisis and china debt levels respectively. 4 out of the top 5 reasons for an expected downturn were explicitly based on excessive debt levels (of course it could be 5/5 as an emerging market crisis is expected to be caused by debt levels also). Despite my general aversion to fiat currencies I have chosen AUD notes as a worthwhile, relatively safe, and liquid hedge.
Enjoy and protect those funds everyone
Australia is significantly exposed to commodity prices, which as showing signs of recovery, and
Australia has government debt at lower levels than most of the rest of the OECD (I have seen % levels ranging fro 40.5 to 66% - depending on the source) esp Canada, the U.S., U.K, and Japan and will be better positioned to react in a global economic downturn. Just reading an interesting report based on a late 2018 survey of 140+ financial advisors (www.invesco.com.au/h...ncome Study_2019.pdf). At that time 77% expected the markets to change direction within the following 2 years.
I find it interesting that stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCod... does not update publicly available government debt levels any more.
The number 1 concern was sovereign debt, #4 corporate debt levels, #5 consumer debt levels,
#2 & 3 were an emerging market crisis and china debt levels respectively. 4 out of the top 5 reasons for an expected downturn were explicitly based on excessive debt levels (of course it could be 5/5 as an emerging market crisis is expected to be caused by debt levels also). Despite my general aversion to fiat currencies I have chosen AUD notes as a worthwhile, relatively safe, and liquid hedge.
Enjoy and protect those funds everyone