Just a thought,
running regression through the current trend, we see the Line of fit acts as a form of resistance.
what I've noticed we lack, for the sake of a different perspective, is velocity.
Our variables:
X1 = Successful break at 76 degrees.
X2 = Successful break at 74 degree.
A1 = Failed Break at 79 degrees
A2 = Failed Break at 68 degrees
As you can see, A1 had velocity after a drop and pushed to break resistance, however after a fail we returned to the downside to continue trending until we gained footing and made a break,
If we consider all the breaks to the top side and even our attempts, each attempt had bounced off the regression support and with momentum behind it ( > 72 degrees), where we either tried to break the wall/broke the wall. - Our last attempt to break at 8.8k was 68 degrees and lacked the triggers from the previous attempts.
All attempts to break up, through the line of fit, were triggered from the bottom of the trendline, falling low enough and hard enough to bounce off and break through.
I think the fail at 8.8k, took the wind from the Bulls, we need to find some footing lower where more buyers are showing interest., I believe that the current price action won't be attractive to institutional buyers, holding out at the 6k range would be a more attractive discount and carries less risk.
I've linked the IG net longs and shorts (below), which despite being outdated by a few days, is indicative of contrary price action. We are still net Long, and so the price will continue to the downside.
There is a clear inverse relationship between net longs and price, a perfect example in the chart linked is how when we were at the most net short, price started trending up. eventually to 14k.
I believe we may range between 7.9k and 8.3k but really need to go lower to go hard.
I'm currently bearish until we breakout.
IG Sentiment: www.dailyfx.com/fore...IN-201910010523.html
running regression through the current trend, we see the Line of fit acts as a form of resistance.
what I've noticed we lack, for the sake of a different perspective, is velocity.
Our variables:
X1 = Successful break at 76 degrees.
X2 = Successful break at 74 degree.
A1 = Failed Break at 79 degrees
A2 = Failed Break at 68 degrees
As you can see, A1 had velocity after a drop and pushed to break resistance, however after a fail we returned to the downside to continue trending until we gained footing and made a break,
If we consider all the breaks to the top side and even our attempts, each attempt had bounced off the regression support and with momentum behind it ( > 72 degrees), where we either tried to break the wall/broke the wall. - Our last attempt to break at 8.8k was 68 degrees and lacked the triggers from the previous attempts.
All attempts to break up, through the line of fit, were triggered from the bottom of the trendline, falling low enough and hard enough to bounce off and break through.
I think the fail at 8.8k, took the wind from the Bulls, we need to find some footing lower where more buyers are showing interest., I believe that the current price action won't be attractive to institutional buyers, holding out at the 6k range would be a more attractive discount and carries less risk.
I've linked the IG net longs and shorts (below), which despite being outdated by a few days, is indicative of contrary price action. We are still net Long, and so the price will continue to the downside.
There is a clear inverse relationship between net longs and price, a perfect example in the chart linked is how when we were at the most net short, price started trending up. eventually to 14k.
I believe we may range between 7.9k and 8.3k but really need to go lower to go hard.
I'm currently bearish until we breakout.
IG Sentiment: www.dailyfx.com/fore...IN-201910010523.html
I guess we'll find out soon enough. safe trading folks