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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 07-11

Long
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TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold continued its bull run as it nearly tested $1300 in the week but retraced back to close with gains of over $4. The weekly move tested the support of the long term trendline which turned out to be a big demand zone as expected. With the dollar index showing signs of exhaustion and gold having flag breakouts on upside, its creating a perfect scenario for the yellow metal to conquer $1300 again. The spur in demand for the safe haven is due to high volatility in other asset classes which is another factor aiding the prices.

On the chart –

Gold gyrated between the support and the resistance but still managed to close with gains signalling sustained bullishness in the trend. Gold again had a flag breakout on the upside along with higher highs and higher lows pattern formation suggesting more gains ahead. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold closed above the support of the long term trendline, till this is held it can move towards $1296. Once this is taken out it can go till $1308.

2. Short trades are losing shine as breakouts are happening on the upside though they are still in play when it comes to scalping.

Bullish view – Bulls remain in the winning ways as they keep on scoring new highs every week. The support of the long term trendline was tested and the price bounced higher showcasing strength of the demand. With gold making flag breakouts on a continuous basis bulls remain quite strong as the trend gets firmer. For bulls to continue their dominance they need to hold the support and newer highs cannot be ruled out till its held. The take out of $1300 convincingly will be a first major victory for the bulls in the year and its looking very likely.

Bearish view – Bears were swift enough to deny $1300 as they eroded the price substantially from the highs, but they have limited scope as positionally gold remains in a firm bull grip.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1296 and $1308 with a stop loss placed below $1267.
Short trades can be only useful for scalping as they are against the trend.
Comment:
Trade Active
Comment:
First long target met at $1296

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