This is risky, considering the strong wave of USD weakness, but my risk to reward ratio is very favorable. This trade has already been triggered at the entry level and is active. I'm basing my trade on technical, but also on a past support zone and the psychological level of 1.12.
To the left of the chart, you’ll notice some vertical blue lines, which identify areas where the RSI had provided high overbought signals. The price dropped precipitously afterward. While there was certainly some higher extensions to the price after these signals were triggered, the 1.12 zone is a psychological ceiling and area of previous support/resistance. MY SL may not be suitable depending on how your strategy uses risk/reward, so you may not want to mirror what I have here.
Entry Level: 1.11950
Stop Loss: 1.1295
Take Profit: 1.08375
I will provide updates as necessary, seeing as this is a longer term short position.
Good luck.
To the left of the chart, you’ll notice some vertical blue lines, which identify areas where the RSI had provided high overbought signals. The price dropped precipitously afterward. While there was certainly some higher extensions to the price after these signals were triggered, the 1.12 zone is a psychological ceiling and area of previous support/resistance. MY SL may not be suitable depending on how your strategy uses risk/reward, so you may not want to mirror what I have here.
Entry Level: 1.11950
Stop Loss: 1.1295
Take Profit: 1.08375
I will provide updates as necessary, seeing as this is a longer term short position.
Good luck.
Trade active:
A closer look at the trade on a smaller timeframe:
Comment:
Oh geez. On the attached chart above, then red and green should be reversed. This is a short, not a long, so green on bottom, red on top... :)
Comment:
It looks like I'm a little early to the party on this one, but my SL has not been hit. I've added a screen shot on an even lower timeframe to help identify the next levels of resistance (my SL is the red horizontal line). The bright green line indicates strong divergence between the price and RSI, so I'm thinking the downtrend predicted above will begin soon.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Comment:
Not exactly confirmation of the pivot to a downtrend, this is a promising move into the green. The 75MA has been broken (yes, a strange MA, but EU on the 1H has been struggling off of it), but we have strong support directly below at the brown horizontal lines.
I expect a lot of resistance here, possibly forming a head and shoulders pattern (that's a bit too much of a prediction at this point though). In general, I'm seeing dollar strength across a number of pairs, which may be good for USD as we look forward to another possible rate hike. I'm still liking this trade.
I expect a lot of resistance here, possibly forming a head and shoulders pattern (that's a bit too much of a prediction at this point though). In general, I'm seeing dollar strength across a number of pairs, which may be good for USD as we look forward to another possible rate hike. I'm still liking this trade.
Comment:
Finally, strong support was broken on Monday. The price has retested previous support (now resistance). My position is looking good so far. I'm looking at a continuation down (though it's possible the price will range in this area seeing as the price had previous S&R in the green zone).
Comment:
Believe it or not, I'm still active in this trade. My stop loss has not been hit, but my position has been in the red for quite some time. I really jumped the gun on the prediction, but the bearish trend still seems likely.
I'm revising my target to around the 1.1000 area, which is not the 300+ pips originally envisioned. I'm looking at bearish RSI divergence on the 4h chart. The price is bouncing within an ascending channel/wedge as well. This indicates an imminent reversal.
A sad trade indeed. Hopefully you weren't as doggedly stubborn as me and made some pips in the meantime. I'll update as necessary.
Thanks!
I'm revising my target to around the 1.1000 area, which is not the 300+ pips originally envisioned. I'm looking at bearish RSI divergence on the 4h chart. The price is bouncing within an ascending channel/wedge as well. This indicates an imminent reversal.
A sad trade indeed. Hopefully you weren't as doggedly stubborn as me and made some pips in the meantime. I'll update as necessary.
Thanks!
Trade closed manually:
This one fell off my radar. It didn't turn out great. Anyway, price is up against a long term top trendline. If it's not a sell at this point, then hold on to your hats because EU is going to the moon. I am inclined to believe it's going to continue down in the large triangle that it's been constrained by.
Thanks for looking. Better luck for me next time.
Thanks for looking. Better luck for me next time.