Greetings to you, our followers!
Your attention an analytical review.
• Topic of the article: A sword of Damocles hung over the dollar in the form of a Fed meeting next week.
Comments last week:
The currency pair felt great this week, continuing the global uptrend. Even when the ECB (#Ecb), announced an increase in its quantitative easing program (#QE) by 600 billion euros.
And the result of this uncontrollable growth was testing multi-month highs at 1.1384.
The only unpleasant event for the single European currency was the US macroeconomic statistics block, which came out much better than forecast estimates.
"The upcoming Fed meeting will shed a lot of light on the current market uncertainty. Bidders want to understand a few things for themselves:
1. Does the Fed pay attention to the weakness of the dollar and does it bother them?
2. Will the new economic stimulus program be a plus to existing ones?
3. The current value of the stock market is effective or not and is there any reason to be afraid of bubble formation?
4. How long will QE programs last, given the latest, very positive labor market data?
5. Could a number of factors (the weakness of the dollar, rising oil prices, real wage growth in the United States) predict inflation?
6. The possibility of negative rates?
7. The current riot situation is like a tropical hurricane, does the Fed take them into account? "
Sergey Vokinlem
Managing WMCI Asset Management Fund
The results of the week: A decrease of 82 points.
Technical analysis:
H1 (Technical) -H4 (indicative).
At the moment, the currency pair continues to be in a global uptrend, the resistance zone for it is the level at 1.1364 there is a local resistance zone, and 1.1280 is the local support of the pair.
The local trend has slightly changed its angle of inclination and this may hint to us the necessary correction in the currency pair.
Indicative analysis provides the following information:
1. The currency pair left the zone of potential sales, however, this does not mean that it is necessary to open sales, the indicator often left this zone and went back.
2. The indicator of price behavior showed a sell signal, the price is in an adequate zone, relative to the 4-day trend.
The most probable scripts (Week-2):
At the moment, there are several main scenarios in the pair:
I.
If the global uptrend is maintained in integrity, we will again see an attempt to break the downtrend (see global analysis in vk and facebook), it is located near the local resistance zone at 1.1360-1.1390.
In the case of overcoming this resistance, we expect growth higher, a return to it (retest) and continued growth to levels 1.1400, 1.1500.
I.II.
The couple may try to test the zone unsuccessfully, in which case bears are activated from it, which have long been trying to overcome the bulls.
II.
A currency pair will show weakness and close below the global trend, and in this case, the next target for the currency pair will be the lower boundary of the local trend. If she cannot keep the pair, then the decline will continue to 1.1240 and possibly 1.1150.
Global Scenario (Month):
Globally - the currency pair is in the downward channel if we consider the time frames D1-W1. At the moment, we are just at the upper boundary.
Based on this, there are only 3 scenarios of behavior:
1. The zone remains unbreakable for the euro and we are declining to the levels indicated above.
2. The zone breaks through, but the breakdown is false - in this case, we again get a downward movement.
3. The zone breaks above the necessary values, the price retests and goes up to 1.14-1.15 and possibly to 1.18.
Global Variables:
• Volatility: Weekly = 93 points // Monthly = 90 points // Quarterly = 80 points.
(Volatility inversion continues);
• Trends:
All SMA (50,100,200) began their growth - last week.
• Range Ratio: 284 points (Growth from 243 points).
Best regards to followers,
"Wermelgion & Partners"
!Attention: Trading financial instruments and (or) cryptocurrencies is fraught with high risks, including the risk of losing part or all of the investment, therefore it is not suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are extremely volatile and can change due to external factors such as financial news, legislative decisions or political events. Margin trading leads to increased financial risks.
Ltd ”Wermelgion & Co” and any provider of the data contained on this website disclaim liability for any loss or loss incurred as a result of trading transactions made with reference to the information provided.
Your attention an analytical review.
• Topic of the article: A sword of Damocles hung over the dollar in the form of a Fed meeting next week.
Comments last week:
The currency pair felt great this week, continuing the global uptrend. Even when the ECB (#Ecb), announced an increase in its quantitative easing program (#QE) by 600 billion euros.
And the result of this uncontrollable growth was testing multi-month highs at 1.1384.
The only unpleasant event for the single European currency was the US macroeconomic statistics block, which came out much better than forecast estimates.
"The upcoming Fed meeting will shed a lot of light on the current market uncertainty. Bidders want to understand a few things for themselves:
1. Does the Fed pay attention to the weakness of the dollar and does it bother them?
2. Will the new economic stimulus program be a plus to existing ones?
3. The current value of the stock market is effective or not and is there any reason to be afraid of bubble formation?
4. How long will QE programs last, given the latest, very positive labor market data?
5. Could a number of factors (the weakness of the dollar, rising oil prices, real wage growth in the United States) predict inflation?
6. The possibility of negative rates?
7. The current riot situation is like a tropical hurricane, does the Fed take them into account? "
Sergey Vokinlem
Managing WMCI Asset Management Fund
The results of the week: A decrease of 82 points.
Technical analysis:
H1 (Technical) -H4 (indicative).
At the moment, the currency pair continues to be in a global uptrend, the resistance zone for it is the level at 1.1364 there is a local resistance zone, and 1.1280 is the local support of the pair.
The local trend has slightly changed its angle of inclination and this may hint to us the necessary correction in the currency pair.
Indicative analysis provides the following information:
1. The currency pair left the zone of potential sales, however, this does not mean that it is necessary to open sales, the indicator often left this zone and went back.
2. The indicator of price behavior showed a sell signal, the price is in an adequate zone, relative to the 4-day trend.
The most probable scripts (Week-2):
At the moment, there are several main scenarios in the pair:
I.
If the global uptrend is maintained in integrity, we will again see an attempt to break the downtrend (see global analysis in vk and facebook), it is located near the local resistance zone at 1.1360-1.1390.
In the case of overcoming this resistance, we expect growth higher, a return to it (retest) and continued growth to levels 1.1400, 1.1500.
I.II.
The couple may try to test the zone unsuccessfully, in which case bears are activated from it, which have long been trying to overcome the bulls.
II.
A currency pair will show weakness and close below the global trend, and in this case, the next target for the currency pair will be the lower boundary of the local trend. If she cannot keep the pair, then the decline will continue to 1.1240 and possibly 1.1150.
Global Scenario (Month):
Globally - the currency pair is in the downward channel if we consider the time frames D1-W1. At the moment, we are just at the upper boundary.
Based on this, there are only 3 scenarios of behavior:
1. The zone remains unbreakable for the euro and we are declining to the levels indicated above.
2. The zone breaks through, but the breakdown is false - in this case, we again get a downward movement.
3. The zone breaks above the necessary values, the price retests and goes up to 1.14-1.15 and possibly to 1.18.
Global Variables:
• Volatility: Weekly = 93 points // Monthly = 90 points // Quarterly = 80 points.
(Volatility inversion continues);
• Trends:
All SMA (50,100,200) began their growth - last week.
• Range Ratio: 284 points (Growth from 243 points).
Best regards to followers,
"Wermelgion & Partners"
!Attention: Trading financial instruments and (or) cryptocurrencies is fraught with high risks, including the risk of losing part or all of the investment, therefore it is not suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are extremely volatile and can change due to external factors such as financial news, legislative decisions or political events. Margin trading leads to increased financial risks.
Ltd ”Wermelgion & Co” and any provider of the data contained on this website disclaim liability for any loss or loss incurred as a result of trading transactions made with reference to the information provided.
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