GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play April, despite recent moves to said lows. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2645, remains a dominant fixture to the upside on this timeframe. However, in recent days, a dynamic push through demand at 1.2509/1.2372 was seen, with Wednesday and Thursday’s sessions retesting the underside of the said zone as supply – note Thursday wrapped in the form of a half-hearted shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern (considered a bearish signal).
This may be enough to draw focus towards demand at 1.2212/1.2075 today/early next week.
H4 timeframe:
Limited change seen on this timeframe since Wednesday.
Price action recently welcomed demand at 1.2147/1.2257 back into the frame, which, so far, has been able to withstand any downside attempts. Supply rests close by at 1.2496/1.2437; this is a reasonably dominant supply with notable downside momentum out of its base, seen just ahead of another layer of supply at 1.2622/1.2517.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday activity settled Thursday at an interesting location. Trendline resistance-turned support (1.2647) is, as you can see, currently holding price, closely reinforced by a channel support (1.2247). The combination of the two said supports are likely enough to get buyers excited. The problem, however, is the 100-period SMA loiters close by at 1.2372, closely tailed by supply at 1.2422/1.2397, which holds 1.24 within and capped upside amid early US hours Thursday.
Beyond the current trendline supports, nevertheless, traders will note the 1.23 handle, with a break exposing demand marked at 1.2218/1.2250.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price is holding north of support at 1.1904/1.2235, albeit in the shape of a bearish candle, while daily activity retests the underside of 1.2509/1.2372 as resistance, suggesting lower levels.
Fed by trendline resistance-turned support, the H1 candles are holding marginally higher in early trade this morning. Additional upside could be seen towards H1 supply at 1.2422/1.2397, having noted room to move higher on the H4 timeframe to supply at 1.2496/1.2437. However, this would entail buying into a daily supply, therefore a cautious approach to longs could be worth considering.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play April, despite recent moves to said lows. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2645, remains a dominant fixture to the upside on this timeframe. However, in recent days, a dynamic push through demand at 1.2509/1.2372 was seen, with Wednesday and Thursday’s sessions retesting the underside of the said zone as supply – note Thursday wrapped in the form of a half-hearted shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern (considered a bearish signal).
This may be enough to draw focus towards demand at 1.2212/1.2075 today/early next week.
H4 timeframe:
Limited change seen on this timeframe since Wednesday.
Price action recently welcomed demand at 1.2147/1.2257 back into the frame, which, so far, has been able to withstand any downside attempts. Supply rests close by at 1.2496/1.2437; this is a reasonably dominant supply with notable downside momentum out of its base, seen just ahead of another layer of supply at 1.2622/1.2517.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday activity settled Thursday at an interesting location. Trendline resistance-turned support (1.2647) is, as you can see, currently holding price, closely reinforced by a channel support (1.2247). The combination of the two said supports are likely enough to get buyers excited. The problem, however, is the 100-period SMA loiters close by at 1.2372, closely tailed by supply at 1.2422/1.2397, which holds 1.24 within and capped upside amid early US hours Thursday.
Beyond the current trendline supports, nevertheless, traders will note the 1.23 handle, with a break exposing demand marked at 1.2218/1.2250.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price is holding north of support at 1.1904/1.2235, albeit in the shape of a bearish candle, while daily activity retests the underside of 1.2509/1.2372 as resistance, suggesting lower levels.
Fed by trendline resistance-turned support, the H1 candles are holding marginally higher in early trade this morning. Additional upside could be seen towards H1 supply at 1.2422/1.2397, having noted room to move higher on the H4 timeframe to supply at 1.2496/1.2437. However, this would entail buying into a daily supply, therefore a cautious approach to longs could be worth considering.