Still in a tightening market with bullish fundamentals. The trend intact for the moment and within the upward trending channel.
However,
too many bullish news are already discounted in the price:
-OPEC compliance with cuts,
-drilling activity in the US eased,
-cold spell in the US pushes heating oil demand higher and of course
-record drawdown in US inventories by >11M.
Market seems overbought and ripe for a correction.
-refineries maintenance season is approaching,
-winter demand soon to ease up
-added supply coming in from Libya 300k b/d
-Iran and Iraq adding additional new facilities this year
From a technical perspective the RSI at the high 80's suggests we should see at least a short term correction. It is too early to say whether the trend is broken and a peak is reached for the mid-term.
However,
too many bullish news are already discounted in the price:
-OPEC compliance with cuts,
-drilling activity in the US eased,
-cold spell in the US pushes heating oil demand higher and of course
-record drawdown in US inventories by >11M.
Market seems overbought and ripe for a correction.
-refineries maintenance season is approaching,
-winter demand soon to ease up
-added supply coming in from Libya 300k b/d
-Iran and Iraq adding additional new facilities this year
From a technical perspective the RSI at the high 80's suggests we should see at least a short term correction. It is too early to say whether the trend is broken and a peak is reached for the mid-term.