Before I post my free Daily comment, I want to clarify the situation since many Traders approached with inquiries. I always place possible Support (and extension if broken), same as Resistance (and extension is broken), so if I have both on my commentary, doesen't mean that I am positioned on the market. I always project possibilities and please read my comments with understanding as freely projecting Medium-term is my aim since I am Swing Trader. Only when I note:"I am engaging set of Sells/Buys with #x,xxxx,xx Target", then it means that I am positioned on the market with Medium-term or Scalp opportunity.
Comment: Gold retested and was again rejected on the #1,786.80 Hourly 4 chart Support and is far from keeping the Medium-term Bearish bias alive. The Engulfing Bullish reversal candle on Hourly 4 succeeded at rejecting the Resistance and catching already the #50% Fibonacci level. I expect the last candle to test again the #1,778.80 Support. The current Global fundamentals are too indecisive to go through the end of the week with Medium-term position. The current Weekly candle is at # +0.70%, indicating strong Bearish continuation bias if the Price-action closes below. If Hourly 4 #MA50 breaks (#1,778.80) it will be fast spike to #1,770.80 Support. This shows that big institutional capital speculate on the same strategy that I apply, taking Profits on Lows of the Channel Down, causing Bullish spikes, which they later Short. The #1,784.80 High can be Technically used as an entry for the #1,765.80 Support test on a “normal” session, but since Covid-19 fear is still visible on the markets, I cannot approach the markets Technically. However, the Ascending Channel needs to drop drastically today or tomorrow, otherwise the candles get off the trend-lines Channel. Aggressive volatility came as no surprise as Covid-19 candles are arriving strongly and distorting Technical trends. I successfully preserved my account waiting for new profitable pattern (which by my calculations should be today or tomorrow). The Price-action is back up passed the Yearly High on Daily levels and Long-terms Investors will start taking Profits on their orders. If however #1,803.80 breaks (Higher High) it could cause a fast Bullish spike with #1,811.80 extension. Checking the Williams% on Hourly 4 chart on biggest percentage this Year, I doubt that Gold will rise more. Despite all this and from a Technical stand point, Daily chart is showing a steeper fall ahead with Higher Lows, able to convert into a Descending Wedge with #1,778.80 as an Support, if broken then the #1,747.80 call will be tested and will engage Historic Gold fall. However, if #MA50 holds on Hourly 4 chart, Price-action would be calling again for Higher levels. As I can note, these are the most volatile times on Gold since #2012 with the Volatility variable on #87% (current Year), last Year the variable was on mere #23%. Long term the data are there to Support an downtrend, but Covid-19 rate can push the market upwards if decline occurs. For Short-term, Gold is still Neutral. Gold is once more used as a Safe-haven (all Metals are down except for Silver and Gold) against the Stock markets soaring that was triggered after the official tariffs passed. The Price-action didn’t took me by surprise, as Asian Stock markets last night withstood this firestorm, but the E.U. markets (that where the losers of the presidential memorandum) ended in enormous losses. I cannot speculate how long this state of uncertainty will last for but for as long as it does, I will adjust my strategy in order to keep profiting on the Gold, adding strict Risk management. As for the correlations and when Gold follows more closely one asset compared to another, this is just up to the analyst (me) to determine. Now, Gold is slowly regained Gold-Stocks correlation (for this week) and deflation would be temporary and would likely produce the kind of fiscal and monetary policies to revive growth. Regarding Fundamentals, the post-crisis environment might be Gold-friendly, like the recovery from the Financial crisis, but Gold can't soar only, correction will happen sooner or later.
Comment: Gold retested and was again rejected on the #1,786.80 Hourly 4 chart Support and is far from keeping the Medium-term Bearish bias alive. The Engulfing Bullish reversal candle on Hourly 4 succeeded at rejecting the Resistance and catching already the #50% Fibonacci level. I expect the last candle to test again the #1,778.80 Support. The current Global fundamentals are too indecisive to go through the end of the week with Medium-term position. The current Weekly candle is at # +0.70%, indicating strong Bearish continuation bias if the Price-action closes below. If Hourly 4 #MA50 breaks (#1,778.80) it will be fast spike to #1,770.80 Support. This shows that big institutional capital speculate on the same strategy that I apply, taking Profits on Lows of the Channel Down, causing Bullish spikes, which they later Short. The #1,784.80 High can be Technically used as an entry for the #1,765.80 Support test on a “normal” session, but since Covid-19 fear is still visible on the markets, I cannot approach the markets Technically. However, the Ascending Channel needs to drop drastically today or tomorrow, otherwise the candles get off the trend-lines Channel. Aggressive volatility came as no surprise as Covid-19 candles are arriving strongly and distorting Technical trends. I successfully preserved my account waiting for new profitable pattern (which by my calculations should be today or tomorrow). The Price-action is back up passed the Yearly High on Daily levels and Long-terms Investors will start taking Profits on their orders. If however #1,803.80 breaks (Higher High) it could cause a fast Bullish spike with #1,811.80 extension. Checking the Williams% on Hourly 4 chart on biggest percentage this Year, I doubt that Gold will rise more. Despite all this and from a Technical stand point, Daily chart is showing a steeper fall ahead with Higher Lows, able to convert into a Descending Wedge with #1,778.80 as an Support, if broken then the #1,747.80 call will be tested and will engage Historic Gold fall. However, if #MA50 holds on Hourly 4 chart, Price-action would be calling again for Higher levels. As I can note, these are the most volatile times on Gold since #2012 with the Volatility variable on #87% (current Year), last Year the variable was on mere #23%. Long term the data are there to Support an downtrend, but Covid-19 rate can push the market upwards if decline occurs. For Short-term, Gold is still Neutral. Gold is once more used as a Safe-haven (all Metals are down except for Silver and Gold) against the Stock markets soaring that was triggered after the official tariffs passed. The Price-action didn’t took me by surprise, as Asian Stock markets last night withstood this firestorm, but the E.U. markets (that where the losers of the presidential memorandum) ended in enormous losses. I cannot speculate how long this state of uncertainty will last for but for as long as it does, I will adjust my strategy in order to keep profiting on the Gold, adding strict Risk management. As for the correlations and when Gold follows more closely one asset compared to another, this is just up to the analyst (me) to determine. Now, Gold is slowly regained Gold-Stocks correlation (for this week) and deflation would be temporary and would likely produce the kind of fiscal and monetary policies to revive growth. Regarding Fundamentals, the post-crisis environment might be Gold-friendly, like the recovery from the Financial crisis, but Gold can't soar only, correction will happen sooner or later.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.