GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play in early May. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Upside momentum recently diminished as the pair crossed paths with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2644, a value that boasts a close connection to a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799.
The week so far has been tepid; further selling, however, could lead to demand at 1.2212/1.2075 entering play, whereas moves higher may whipsaw to supply at 1.3021/1.2844.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Resistance at 1.2624 has contained upside since mid-March.
Demand at 1.2399/1.2453 entered play in recent trade. Despite a lack of enthusiasm from buyers, the demand is holding firm. Demand failure could see another layer of demand enter sight at 1.2297/1.2350. Resistance, however, is seen reasonably close by at 1.2520.
H1 timeframe:
Sterling has found itself compressing within two converging trendlines on the H1 timeframe, forming what appears to be a rising wedge pattern (1.2405/1.2475). According to the structure of the noted formation, we could squeeze higher until reaching the 1.25 handle, possibly even pulling in H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511. In fact, H1 supply is positioned to welcome a fakeout (run buy stops above the round number) through 1.25 for a move lower.
1.24 also marks possible support on this timeframe, with a break unmasking demand at 1.2379/1.2393. Similar to what happened on April 29 (red arrow), this demand could also welcome a fakeout scenario through 1.24.
Structures of Interest:
The daily timeframe indicates lower levels could be in the offing. H4 demand at 1.2399/1.2453 also breathes a fragile tone, while H1 action is in the process of forming a rising wedge, with the possibility of reaching H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511 before stepping lower.
A break beneath the lower boundary of the H1 rising wedge could signify we’re heading for 1.24.
Continued bidding, though, will likely draw eyes to the current H1 supply for possible shorting opportunities.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play in early May. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Upside momentum recently diminished as the pair crossed paths with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2644, a value that boasts a close connection to a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799.
The week so far has been tepid; further selling, however, could lead to demand at 1.2212/1.2075 entering play, whereas moves higher may whipsaw to supply at 1.3021/1.2844.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Resistance at 1.2624 has contained upside since mid-March.
Demand at 1.2399/1.2453 entered play in recent trade. Despite a lack of enthusiasm from buyers, the demand is holding firm. Demand failure could see another layer of demand enter sight at 1.2297/1.2350. Resistance, however, is seen reasonably close by at 1.2520.
H1 timeframe:
Sterling has found itself compressing within two converging trendlines on the H1 timeframe, forming what appears to be a rising wedge pattern (1.2405/1.2475). According to the structure of the noted formation, we could squeeze higher until reaching the 1.25 handle, possibly even pulling in H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511. In fact, H1 supply is positioned to welcome a fakeout (run buy stops above the round number) through 1.25 for a move lower.
1.24 also marks possible support on this timeframe, with a break unmasking demand at 1.2379/1.2393. Similar to what happened on April 29 (red arrow), this demand could also welcome a fakeout scenario through 1.24.
Structures of Interest:
The daily timeframe indicates lower levels could be in the offing. H4 demand at 1.2399/1.2453 also breathes a fragile tone, while H1 action is in the process of forming a rising wedge, with the possibility of reaching H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511 before stepping lower.
A break beneath the lower boundary of the H1 rising wedge could signify we’re heading for 1.24.
Continued bidding, though, will likely draw eyes to the current H1 supply for possible shorting opportunities.