Hypothesis #2 go Long for short-term, but go Short for mid-term
Hypothesis #2 go Long for short-term, but go Short for mid-term
I have two major hypothesis:
1. Downtrend commenced in October has already formed all 5 waves of the first big weekly scale wave
2. Only 1,2 and 3 waves of large down-trend have been completed and wave 4 is forming at the moment
This post is all about hypo #2.
1. Wave 3 is 1.6 times longer than wave 1, which is nice.
2. Wave 4 is very different from wave 2, and triangle in wave 4 support this hypo.
3. About 30% of wave 3 has been retraced already.
4. At the moment wave C of a complex correction is forming a triangle of which sub-wave D is about to be complete
5. Penetration below $59.20 level without completion of wave E at $61.20 invalidates hypo #2
6. Penetration above $62 totally invalidate hypo #2
Trading strategy:
1. Both hypo #1 and #2 assume upward move from $59.70 area to $61.20 . So buy at $59.70
2.1. Sell at $61.20 or alternatively
2.2. Sager option: wait for completion of wave E at around 61.20 but sell after market move ~$60 , to be sure hypo #1 is invalid.
I have two major hypothesis:
1. Downtrend commenced in October has already formed all 5 waves of the first big weekly scale wave
2. Only 1,2 and 3 waves of large down-trend have been completed and wave 4 is forming at the moment
This post is all about hypo #2.
1. Wave 3 is 1.6 times longer than wave 1, which is nice.
2. Wave 4 is very different from wave 2, and triangle in wave 4 support this hypo.
3. About 30% of wave 3 has been retraced already.
4. At the moment wave C of a complex correction is forming a triangle of which sub-wave D is about to be complete
5. Penetration below $59.20 level without completion of wave E at $61.20 invalidates hypo #2
6. Penetration above $62 totally invalidate hypo #2
Trading strategy:
1. Both hypo #1 and #2 assume upward move from $59.70 area to $61.20 . So buy at $59.70
2.1. Sell at $61.20 or alternatively
2.2. Sager option: wait for completion of wave E at around 61.20 but sell after market move ~$60 , to be sure hypo #1 is invalid.
