Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in early July, particularly as an intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD crossed resistance at 0.6931 Monday, marking its sixth successive daily advance. The break to the upside shines focus on two trendline resistances close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), with a break unmasking another resistance at 0.7197.
Failure to maintain a position above 0.6931 will throw light back on support at 0.6755. Traders will also note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6670 lurks just south of here, a dynamic value in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of establishing a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders. As you can see, the pair mildly advanced last Thursday, penetrating the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant and shortly after retesting the base as support.
Friday, despite decreased liquidity across the board due to the US holiday, modestly extended Thursday’s retest, with Monday adding to gains. Supply at 0.7058/0.7029 is featured as the next obstacle on this timeframe.
H1 timeframe:
Monday had supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (holds 0.70 within its upper boundary) greet price action into the US session, generating a mild pullback.
Trendline support (0.6877), together with 0.6950, represents near-term support.
Structures of Interest:
According to the monthly timeframe, although we’re still trading within supply at 0.7029/0.6664, price is testing waters above a connecting trendline resistance, stressing a mild bullish tone. This is further confirmed on the daily timeframe after crossing resistance at 0.6931.
The recent close north of the bullish pennant pattern (0.7064/0.6776) and room to advance on the H4 timeframe was a clear buy signal, helping confirm upside on the higher timeframes. To continue seeking higher ground, H1 must overcome supply at 0.7003/0.6987, which will have traders target H4 supply at 0.7058/0.7029.
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in early July, particularly as an intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD crossed resistance at 0.6931 Monday, marking its sixth successive daily advance. The break to the upside shines focus on two trendline resistances close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), with a break unmasking another resistance at 0.7197.
Failure to maintain a position above 0.6931 will throw light back on support at 0.6755. Traders will also note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6670 lurks just south of here, a dynamic value in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of establishing a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders. As you can see, the pair mildly advanced last Thursday, penetrating the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant and shortly after retesting the base as support.
Friday, despite decreased liquidity across the board due to the US holiday, modestly extended Thursday’s retest, with Monday adding to gains. Supply at 0.7058/0.7029 is featured as the next obstacle on this timeframe.
H1 timeframe:
Monday had supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (holds 0.70 within its upper boundary) greet price action into the US session, generating a mild pullback.
Trendline support (0.6877), together with 0.6950, represents near-term support.
Structures of Interest:
According to the monthly timeframe, although we’re still trading within supply at 0.7029/0.6664, price is testing waters above a connecting trendline resistance, stressing a mild bullish tone. This is further confirmed on the daily timeframe after crossing resistance at 0.6931.
The recent close north of the bullish pennant pattern (0.7064/0.6776) and room to advance on the H4 timeframe was a clear buy signal, helping confirm upside on the higher timeframes. To continue seeking higher ground, H1 must overcome supply at 0.7003/0.6987, which will have traders target H4 supply at 0.7058/0.7029.