goldenBear88

Engaging my set of Sells / Selling sequence

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
The consolidation within roughly the #1,762.80 - #1,772.80 zone is one of the tightest and strongest in recent Months (the Daily chart volatility is very highly fuelled by a Buying pressure (Gold as a safe-haven benefiting from capital moved from riskier assets to Gold) and Selling pressure equally (Technically Gold is strongly Overbought). This is of course the outcome of the Covid-19 uncertainty and sharp Sell-off on the Stock markets (due to the Covid-19 pessimistic outlook on the quickness of the recovery), as Investors are caught in the middle of Buying because of Gold's safe haven status when riskier assets decline and due to yesterday's strong rise on DX currently on #4 day Resistance. I have mentioned my opinion with the DX, that normally it prevails as the main Safe Haven (as it happened in March) in times of Stock markets crashes - which engages correction with Gold that both assets (Gold and DX) rises and Stock markets decline. This puts significant Buying pressure on Gold and reason why Gold is Trading on Highs since June #17. Personally, Gold is near the movement Top and #1,766.80 Resistance is so far holding (on Xau-Usd on my reports) and is the level I am focusing at. The Fundamental side down-played the quick fair Technical value Price-action hopes which the Stock markets Investors had, especially since May, and the sharp Stock Sell-off benefited Gold as a safe-haven. I am on critical cross-roads, as I have been mentioning the past few weeks Gold has regained it's negative correlations with Stock markers. Adding to that the fact that DX is on a downfall (Medium-term) since May #26, I quickly understand why Gold is still on High levels even though the Daily chart is still on Higher Highs since the May #18th Top and no signs of a decline yet. I am afraid though that if the Stock markets correction is extended the correlation will break as the DX will prevail as the Safe Haven (as it happened in March) and Gold will start pulling back again. However, the more Gold Trades on Highs, the steeper the decline/correction will be. As expected, yesterday's session and U.S. opening Bell didn’t delivered any significant move and despite the decline on Bonds and Stock markers consolidating, Gold has managed to defend the Support throughout the E.U. session and enter the #1,760’s Hourly 4 Neutral zone (Visible from June #23). What happened is maximum Bullish extension of the Higher High sequence within the Daily Channel Up which is still valid. The Daily chart RSI bounced back from April #14 Resistance, which indicates that Bearish pullback is near. In my opinion #1,678.80 is the highest extension and better Sell opportunity lies near the current Price-action. I am expecting new Selling accumulation towards #1,717.80. I am still assured that Gold has to respect Technical course and normalize Overbought levels with sharp decline. No strategy shift so far as Weekly is still Selling on most Moving averages. Yet again, the Price-action managed to close above the Hourly 4 Support #2 closings in a row giving a life-line to Sellers and so far today Gold is Trading below it. The Hourly 4 is on a Channel Up and needs to recover the #1,778.80 Top in order to put Gold back into Bullish track and preserve the Channel. Otherwise there is an emerging Selling sequence, which is Technically a Bearish formation and brings the danger for a new Low first to #1,747.80 then #MA50 #1,717.80 extension. This will be the second time that Gold is testing the Hourly 4 #MA50 as a Support since June #6. That session the #MA rejected the Price-action and engaged sequence aggressively to the upside, but I don't think that the scenario will be similar at the moment. I see no reason not to expect another strong Selling sequence (with the obvious initial target the Hourly 4 #MA50 as mentioned previously). This zone up to #1,778.80 is a heavy supply zone on the Daily Channel Up and I am expecting Medium-term Sellers to step in. My Medium-term Target is #1,746.80, Stop-loss priced at #1,778.80.

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