The amount of over complicated TA I see come through the cryptocurrency space drives me mad. People lay countless indicators over each other often contradicting their own analysis. At the end of the day, what drives markets? Pure fundamentals, basic technical factors, and most importantly, market psychology.
Over the past 4 years of trading cryptocurrencies I have dabbled in most every strategy. I have conclusively found that Occams razor is sharp enough to cut through all the over complicated BS.
Let's keep it simple. As most people would agree, BTC has established a new macro uptrend. It has done this more than once leading up to the halving events. During these uptrends sharp ~30% pullbacks are common (examples fo ~30% pull back highlighted in past bear market/macro up trend). This is precisely what we have seen since the the ~13500 high on Jun 26. This coupled with the fact that the dominant trend line is still intact would lead me to be short term bullish on BTC. (We can also potentially see resistance turned support highlighted with the red bar).
Now, anyone who has been involved in financial/equity/crypto markets for any extended period of time will surely tell you, nothing is set in stone. We use tools and indicators to help us better understand the movements of markets, but must never forget that anything can happen at anytime. So we should vigilantly watch the dominant trend line and if it is substantially broken, with a daily candle and strong volume, then we can look to short BTC. I would begin taking profit from a short position around 8000-7500 (This coincides with the .618 fib level) and leaving something on the table incase of a dip to the 6k zone.
Happy trading!
Over the past 4 years of trading cryptocurrencies I have dabbled in most every strategy. I have conclusively found that Occams razor is sharp enough to cut through all the over complicated BS.
Let's keep it simple. As most people would agree, BTC has established a new macro uptrend. It has done this more than once leading up to the halving events. During these uptrends sharp ~30% pullbacks are common (examples fo ~30% pull back highlighted in past bear market/macro up trend). This is precisely what we have seen since the the ~13500 high on Jun 26. This coupled with the fact that the dominant trend line is still intact would lead me to be short term bullish on BTC. (We can also potentially see resistance turned support highlighted with the red bar).
Now, anyone who has been involved in financial/equity/crypto markets for any extended period of time will surely tell you, nothing is set in stone. We use tools and indicators to help us better understand the movements of markets, but must never forget that anything can happen at anytime. So we should vigilantly watch the dominant trend line and if it is substantially broken, with a daily candle and strong volume, then we can look to short BTC. I would begin taking profit from a short position around 8000-7500 (This coincides with the .618 fib level) and leaving something on the table incase of a dip to the 6k zone.
Happy trading!