AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remains a dominant fixture on this timeframe, though has, as of yet, been unable to deliver much in terms of downside. An extension to the downside faces possible support from 0.6372ish, with a break unmasking 0.6253 (April 21 low).
It should also be emphasised the current supply comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. Traders may include the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6660.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
After forming an early peak out of supply from 0.6581/0.6545, price shaped a falling wedge between 0.6561/0.6432, on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Monday had the candles penetrate the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern. Tuesday extended upside, travelling to a high of 0.6584 and piercing the top edge of supply at 0.6581/0.6545. What’s also special is the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), came within a few pips of completing at 0.6595.
H1 timeframe:
Buyers took a back seat after testing the completion point of an ABCD bearish pattern at 0.6577 Tuesday, as we headed into the later phase of the session, sending price action back under 0.6550.
To the left of current price demand appears consumed until reaching possible support at 0.65. Interestingly, though, a whipsaw through 0.65 could be in the offing towards a demand zone at 0.6483/0.6472 (prior supply). Also note the 100-period simple moving average is seen crawling the underside of the noted demand at around 0.6470.
Structures of Interest:
As highlighted in the weekly technical market insight, in order to bring in monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664, daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 will need to be overturned.
Short term, however, shows H4 price rotating lower from supply at 0.6581/0.6545, by way of a bearish outside pattern, missing the falling wedge take-profit target by a hair. This, together with H1 price displaying scope to approach at least 0.65 out of an ABCD correction, may lure sellers into the market today.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remains a dominant fixture on this timeframe, though has, as of yet, been unable to deliver much in terms of downside. An extension to the downside faces possible support from 0.6372ish, with a break unmasking 0.6253 (April 21 low).
It should also be emphasised the current supply comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. Traders may include the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6660.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
After forming an early peak out of supply from 0.6581/0.6545, price shaped a falling wedge between 0.6561/0.6432, on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Monday had the candles penetrate the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern. Tuesday extended upside, travelling to a high of 0.6584 and piercing the top edge of supply at 0.6581/0.6545. What’s also special is the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), came within a few pips of completing at 0.6595.
H1 timeframe:
Buyers took a back seat after testing the completion point of an ABCD bearish pattern at 0.6577 Tuesday, as we headed into the later phase of the session, sending price action back under 0.6550.
To the left of current price demand appears consumed until reaching possible support at 0.65. Interestingly, though, a whipsaw through 0.65 could be in the offing towards a demand zone at 0.6483/0.6472 (prior supply). Also note the 100-period simple moving average is seen crawling the underside of the noted demand at around 0.6470.
Structures of Interest:
As highlighted in the weekly technical market insight, in order to bring in monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664, daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 will need to be overturned.
Short term, however, shows H4 price rotating lower from supply at 0.6581/0.6545, by way of a bearish outside pattern, missing the falling wedge take-profit target by a hair. This, together with H1 price displaying scope to approach at least 0.65 out of an ABCD correction, may lure sellers into the market today.