Important week for the EURUSD

The current week is extremely important for the EURUSD pair. All the attention of investors and traders will be focused on two key events: the Fed's decision on Wednesday and the ECB announcement on Thursday. The other things (political events in Europe, US trade wars against the EU and other world, etc.) will recede into the background. Moreover, Italy almost every day generates soothing statements about the fact that it is not going to leave the Eurozone and in general the European Union is the main priority of the country. Therefore, it makes sense to focus on the decisions of the central banks.

Today we will talk about the nearest of them - the meeting and announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System. The current consensus on the market is that the rate will be raised by 25 basis points (the Bloomberg survey showed that all 37 experts surveyed expect this decision of the regulator). At the same time, analysts' expectations are shifting towards only 2 rate increases in 2018, not 3, as it was in March. And for this in general there are sufficient reasons - the US economy is in good shape and relatively balanced. Excessive tightening of the monetary policy can break this balance and bring down the locomotive of the US economy. So we do not expect aggressive statements from the Fed. It will also be important to watch the updated economic forecasts from the Central Bank.

In our opinion, there are not many chances on Wednesday that the dollar will receive support from the Fed. In this light, the purchase of the EURUSD pair looks like a good trading idea for this week. Moreover, the pair clearly passed the stage of total sales, which we observed in the period from mid-April to the end of May. As a target for purchases this week, the round mark of 1.20 looks quite real, especially, in combination, with quite strong resistance level. In total, our recommendation is to buy the EURUSD pair from the current prices with a gradual addition around 1.1650 and 1.1550 (if, of course, the pair decides to "go down").