Yields/Rate Cuts/Repo/QE-Not QE....Does USD Hold here...Doesnt look Good!
Head Shots Only!
Head Shots Only!
Comment:
Comment:
We’re also not convinced that China & the US will be able to reach a deal later in November, if they don’t then the trade-weighted dollar could get a re-boost. The leaders of the latter two countries may meet at the APEC meeting November 16-17 in Santiago, Chile. Nordea
Comment:
Growth outlook suggests it’s too early to underweight FX havens…
We earlier showed how US CEO confidence had plunged to recessionary levels, and when we have examined this number further, we find that if anything it historically leads both ISM manufacturing (by one quarter) and ISM non-manufacturing (by three quarters). Unless CEO confidence magically recovers in Q4, we may be in for further bad news for global growth over the next few quarters (simple regressions suggests ISM non-manufacturing at or below 50 by next spring and ISM manufacturing at ~46 in 2020). To us that suggests it’s likely too early to underweight havens assets (in FX: USD, CHF, JPY vs the rest of G10). (We think USD bears will do better shorting USD vs EM currencies such as the RUB - USD/RUB broke below its uptrend last Friday). Nordea
We earlier showed how US CEO confidence had plunged to recessionary levels, and when we have examined this number further, we find that if anything it historically leads both ISM manufacturing (by one quarter) and ISM non-manufacturing (by three quarters). Unless CEO confidence magically recovers in Q4, we may be in for further bad news for global growth over the next few quarters (simple regressions suggests ISM non-manufacturing at or below 50 by next spring and ISM manufacturing at ~46 in 2020). To us that suggests it’s likely too early to underweight havens assets (in FX: USD, CHF, JPY vs the rest of G10). (We think USD bears will do better shorting USD vs EM currencies such as the RUB - USD/RUB broke below its uptrend last Friday). Nordea
*FED SAYS TREASURY BILL PURCHASES TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO 2Q
*FED TO CONDUCT OVERNIGHT AND TERM REPOS AT LEAST THROUGH JAN.
Global Central Banks tire of paying USA Debt burden (UST Auctions), China foresaw the current trade war (strategy) years ago...Fed is cornered and out of tools...tune out the noise...do you not see what's forming in front of you????
Good for GOLD/SILV/BTC NOT for USDs!!!
Environments change...Adapt or Die!