Not legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Cheers!
Cheers!
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Today agenda - NFP day, as usually very nervous for many traders, plus today is again friday even more nervous day for other traders and etc. In conclusion it is nervous day for traders, but also when it was opposite?
NFP expectations from french banks BNP 2.25/SG 2
from the other side of the pond Citi 2.1/GS 1.9
Stocks were hit last night and hard to say what was the main reason.
If you look at presidential election story you will find out what Trump/Powell doing with stocks. Artificial up move for sure, but why?
From year 1928 with 87 percent of success stock market predicted the results of presidential elections.
If stonks get higher 3 month before the elections - the winner was current president, if opposite then the winner was contender.
We all have dangerous situation that after even Trump win - stock market will be hit hard without fed buying activity.
The United States presidential election, 2020 will take place on November 3, 2020
It is 2 month to go in a row and we are already at all time highs...
Does the Trump/Powell have the strength to keep it up for next 2 months?
This is a question to think about...
Next news from fundamental side - clearly ECB willing not to go further above 1.2 level. Strong EUR isa headache for ECB.We already hear it a few days ago and this is point to note.
Largest CFTC no-commercial net long EUR position since May, 2011 around 27 percent of open interest. This is huge already.
And this is another question to think about...
VIX rising
Back to our rams...
Clearly we have dividing line at 1.17 - 4 medium term players, imho this CFTC no-commercial net long EUR position stops is under this level.
From tech structure today 1.18 is the key with 1.1760 as the last bulls fort.
Sentiment bearish from my point of view, but all in from everyone will be only under 1.1750 and 1.1690... Something like that.
Sell on spikes, but without fanatical attitude is my choice.
Have a great friday trading and nice w/e ahead. Cheers
NFP expectations from french banks BNP 2.25/SG 2
from the other side of the pond Citi 2.1/GS 1.9
Stocks were hit last night and hard to say what was the main reason.
If you look at presidential election story you will find out what Trump/Powell doing with stocks. Artificial up move for sure, but why?
From year 1928 with 87 percent of success stock market predicted the results of presidential elections.
If stonks get higher 3 month before the elections - the winner was current president, if opposite then the winner was contender.
We all have dangerous situation that after even Trump win - stock market will be hit hard without fed buying activity.
The United States presidential election, 2020 will take place on November 3, 2020
It is 2 month to go in a row and we are already at all time highs...
Does the Trump/Powell have the strength to keep it up for next 2 months?
This is a question to think about...
Next news from fundamental side - clearly ECB willing not to go further above 1.2 level. Strong EUR isa headache for ECB.We already hear it a few days ago and this is point to note.
Largest CFTC no-commercial net long EUR position since May, 2011 around 27 percent of open interest. This is huge already.
And this is another question to think about...
VIX rising
Back to our rams...
Clearly we have dividing line at 1.17 - 4 medium term players, imho this CFTC no-commercial net long EUR position stops is under this level.
From tech structure today 1.18 is the key with 1.1760 as the last bulls fort.
Sentiment bearish from my point of view, but all in from everyone will be only under 1.1750 and 1.1690... Something like that.
Sell on spikes, but without fanatical attitude is my choice.
Have a great friday trading and nice w/e ahead. Cheers
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Comment:
Frankly speaking it is 1.1861 against 1.1811 today imho
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It is like carrot for bunny - 1.1811
I want to buy it there, but I feel it is a trap already
any lower prices then new lows are coming imho ...
Cheers! Take care.
I want to buy it there, but I feel it is a trap already
any lower prices then new lows are coming imho ...
Cheers! Take care.
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Comment:
Bearish setup is more complicated. Cus either you already short and it is core view already. To find any strong resistance and to say it is bold is a bit tricky atm, we can fall from any level that you can imagine, but also we can slowly scratch higher.
Imho bears spot is 1.1866 and 1.1917... Cheers!
Have a great w/e!
Imho bears spot is 1.1866 and 1.1917... Cheers!
Have a great w/e!
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1.1865 ag 1.1832 still slowly trying to get higher
1.1832 trigger to 1.1810
1.1832 trigger to 1.1810
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