dchua1969

Investing is a game of waiting and waiting .....

Long
dchua1969 Updated   
OANDA:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
looking at the chart, it is easy to say , buy here and sell here as the candles were already formed thereafter. Imagine on 27 Jul 20 where the first breakout candle happens, would you buy ? Most likely not, the strategic ones would buy on 30 July where it retraces with a bullish candle.

But imagine you did not take any action and look at 11 Aug 20 candle where it plunge fairly deep. What would you say now? Smart of me not to get in , isn't it ? And the next day, it surprises you once more and rebounded back to where it was .......

Then came 1 Sept 20 and it brings the earlier buyers who got in on 30 July 20 saw their profits evaporated :(

So, where are we now with Silver ? Avoid the complicated indicators and listen to the gurus who are more eager to sell you their "proprietary software" or courses but a few simple lines with logics may be of some help.

We draw a line at 25.88 (around 25 is ok) where you see support and resistance as well. So, we can safely say, if it breaks below this support of 25.88, it would likely heads down to 22.76 where it is a fairly strong support and I would like to buy more of Silver.

Can you then buy at current price level and aim for 28.9? Sure, we can see buying momentum about 10 days ago from the candles with sellers equally trying to drive it down as well.

Therefore, the risks is if you buy now, it might drop back to 22.76 so you suffer some paper losses. Is that OK for you? Will you sleep well at night and not break into cold sweat or have nightmare ? Or you can wait for it to break out of 28.90 and then initiate a long position. Of course, there lies the risks that it might be a false breakout and again it comes tumbling down to 25.80 and possibly 22.76.

If you count the dates, roughly , this ding dong pattern or whipsaw has been going on for the last 9 months. Will it continue for another few weeks or months ? Your guess is as good as mine.

Next important question you want to ask is how long are you prepared to hold this commodity ? A week, a month or a year ? The shorter your time frame, the shorter your target and stoploss would be which means you might be more interested in the hourly or minutes chart to trade.

I hope these 3 lines give our traders/investors friends here a much clearer picture of the forest view of Silver and not get too panicky when others are shouting ; buy , buy , buy or sell , sell , sell. Everyone has a different target, risk appetite, capital , etc so following others blindly without first understanding why you are involved in silver , how long you are prepared to hold, etc will create an illusion that you are in the market yet not profiting from it.

Comment:
people get excited all the time when they read news, hearsay from people who claims they made so much $$$ , really ????

Chill guys.....when you are in for the long haul, you could yawn looking at the chart above after weeks and it barely moves much to the direction you wanted. And that means, you do nothing but wait unless you are the movers and shakers of the market.
Comment:
looks like we may get a chance to buy Silver at the cheap once more if it goes to 22
Comment:
yawn....
Comment:
still waiting.......
Comment:
finance.yahoo.com/ne...lt-15-022209368.html

If price drops further this year, I may be tempted to buy a few bars of silver or coins.
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