SPY Next Week Expected Moves ($52) + Gravity Points
Last week's call had me nervous for a second there. A very chaotic week, but I had several opportunities to put on a couple positions. Hats off to anyone who waited for that upper expected move. (two opportunities)
Large expansion for the expected move from last week to this week = expect volatility to pick up.
Couple quick notes:
- 10 yr / 3 mo yield inverted. You now are paid more to buy a 3 month bond than a 10 year bond. Fundamentally this makes no sense because you should be compensated for the additional risk of loaning your money for longer periods of time. Ill share some of my excel doc data of different yield curve pair inversions for the 10/3because it's so important:
---> 10 yr / 3 mo yield inversion time prior to next Recession: Average = 13 Months
---> S&P 500 Peak to start of recession percentage gain/loss: Average = -13.3% Median = -13.5% (Most losses happen prior to official recession)
---> S&P 500 percentage gain/loss during Recession: Average = -1.3% Median = 6.7%
---> Number of Months from Peak to Recession: Average = 8.7 months Median = 8.5 months
---> Number of Months in Recession: Average = 13.5 months Median = 10.7 months
---> Recession Start to S&P 500 Trough: Average = 8 months Median = 5.3 months
- Powell signaled to the market that the economy is weak
- Germany slowdown bad Friday morning manufacturing report
- China slowdown
- Brexit delated but nowhere near resolved
Best of luck next week gentlemen
- RH
P.S. Wish me luck on my Series 7 exam on Friday next week!
Large expansion for the expected move from last week to this week = expect volatility to pick up.
Couple quick notes:
- 10 yr / 3 mo yield inverted. You now are paid more to buy a 3 month bond than a 10 year bond. Fundamentally this makes no sense because you should be compensated for the additional risk of loaning your money for longer periods of time. Ill share some of my excel doc data of different yield curve pair inversions for the 10/3because it's so important:
---> 10 yr / 3 mo yield inversion time prior to next Recession: Average = 13 Months
---> S&P 500 Peak to start of recession percentage gain/loss: Average = -13.3% Median = -13.5% (Most losses happen prior to official recession)
---> S&P 500 percentage gain/loss during Recession: Average = -1.3% Median = 6.7%
---> Number of Months from Peak to Recession: Average = 8.7 months Median = 8.5 months
---> Number of Months in Recession: Average = 13.5 months Median = 10.7 months
---> Recession Start to S&P 500 Trough: Average = 8 months Median = 5.3 months
- Powell signaled to the market that the economy is weak
- Germany slowdown bad Friday morning manufacturing report
- China slowdown
- Brexit delated but nowhere near resolved
Best of luck next week gentlemen
- RH
P.S. Wish me luck on my Series 7 exam on Friday next week!