EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance ) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, on the other hand, is tunnelling back into the said demand, so far disregarding April’s candlestick pattern.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Since the later stages of last week, daily price, by way of a bearish flag pattern between 1.0784/1.0875, has been seesawing between gains/losses ahead of a 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745.
Another constructive development is the formation of a bearish pennant pattern between 1.1147/1.0635. It is also worth pointing out the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) circles the upper portion of our pennant configuration around 1.1020.
A convincing daily close out of the current bearish flag and pennant pattern structure might give rise to a fresh wave of selling. Breaking lower entails tipping 1.0745 and ultimately competing with demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017.
H4 timeframe:
Thanks to the US dollar index, or ‘DXY’, voyaging above 100.50, EUR/USD modestly extended losses for a second straight session Thursday and greeted trendline support (1.0635) into the closing stages of the day.
Thursday’s descent came after Wednesday’s decisive rebound out of supply at 1.0906/1.0878, which aligns with a 50.0% level at 1.0892.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday action Thursday saw price action nosedive through 1.08, ripping through sell-stops and challenging demand posted at 1.0760-1.0775. This was a noted demand in recent analysis owing to the zone intersecting with H4 trendline support (1.0635).
Structures of Interest:
1.08 is proving problematic resistance on the H1 timeframe; should we break through local trendline resistance (1.0824), though, buyers above 1.08 will be watching the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0827 as the next resistance target. Below 1.0760-1.0775, nonetheless, re-opens the risk of a return to 1.0750.
Longer-term technical action, however, indicates interest to the downside, particularly if we break through the daily bearish flag.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance ) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, on the other hand, is tunnelling back into the said demand, so far disregarding April’s candlestick pattern.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Since the later stages of last week, daily price, by way of a bearish flag pattern between 1.0784/1.0875, has been seesawing between gains/losses ahead of a 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745.
Another constructive development is the formation of a bearish pennant pattern between 1.1147/1.0635. It is also worth pointing out the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) circles the upper portion of our pennant configuration around 1.1020.
A convincing daily close out of the current bearish flag and pennant pattern structure might give rise to a fresh wave of selling. Breaking lower entails tipping 1.0745 and ultimately competing with demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017.
H4 timeframe:
Thanks to the US dollar index, or ‘DXY’, voyaging above 100.50, EUR/USD modestly extended losses for a second straight session Thursday and greeted trendline support (1.0635) into the closing stages of the day.
Thursday’s descent came after Wednesday’s decisive rebound out of supply at 1.0906/1.0878, which aligns with a 50.0% level at 1.0892.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday action Thursday saw price action nosedive through 1.08, ripping through sell-stops and challenging demand posted at 1.0760-1.0775. This was a noted demand in recent analysis owing to the zone intersecting with H4 trendline support (1.0635).
Structures of Interest:
1.08 is proving problematic resistance on the H1 timeframe; should we break through local trendline resistance (1.0824), though, buyers above 1.08 will be watching the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0827 as the next resistance target. Below 1.0760-1.0775, nonetheless, re-opens the risk of a return to 1.0750.
Longer-term technical action, however, indicates interest to the downside, particularly if we break through the daily bearish flag.